Manchin will vote yes. How in the hell would he explain it otherwise? So that leaves us with the two senators who yesterday stated that they believe that the FBI investigation was thorough and did not uncover corroborating evidence.
Manchin will only vote yes if the republicans already have 50+ votes. No way will be a a true swing/deciding vote. All down to Flake and Collins. If they vote yes, then Manchin probably votes yes and possibly Murkowski.