Posted on 10/02/2018 8:53:54 AM PDT by TigerClaws
Wendy Rogers, the GOP nominee for Congress in Arizona’s first congressional district, has taken a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) in a key district that could decide the fate of the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. This district is one of just a handful nationwide where Republicans have an opportunity to flip a seat currently represented by a Democrat back into GOP hands. A couple other such seats exist in Minnesota and one more is in Nevada, but there are hardly any pickup opportunities for Republicans when it comes to defending their House majority. For every one of these Republicans flip from Democrat control to GOP control, they raise the so-called “magic number” for Democrats to take the majority. The magic number, currently 24, is the net number of seats Democrats need to flip from GOP control to Democrat control to retake the House majority.
While the new poll released in Arizona’s first district is a poll conducted by the Rogers campaign and one she released on her Twitter account, it is the only poll in this race to come out so far. It shows her with a more than three percent lead–inside the survey’s four percent margin of error.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
It's far too complicated to narrow it down to one number.
And then, of course, there's the track record from 2016. The polls were fairly close on the popular vote, but it was the electoral college votes that mattered, and they missed that by a mile.
Nanzi probably wants to “target” that district (I know, you’re not supposed to say that, but it’s ok when they do it)
I want to see McSally rocket up! Sinema actually has an ad that starts with ‘McSally voted 97% with Trump’. I had to look again at the TV. I’m thinking that will just help McSally! Glad to see Wendy is up.....we need to get rid of all the Leftist transplants in AZ and have a great state again! (Ducey is on track to win, AFAIK)
“A couple other such seats exist in Minnesota”.....
As much as conservatives would indeed like to see the “Blue Wave” crash, don’t expect to see it in Minnesota. Minnesota is lost to the demodummies for many years to come. When their man Ellison was found NOT guilty of physically beating his former girlfriend, when there was more than enough evidence to prove he was, I rest my case.
While, as the saying goes, “all politics is local”, we are seeing quite a different set of issues driving the house and senate races this year.
On the house side, the impeachment of Donald Trump IS a big issue and the Democrats have made it one. In an off election year, the minority party seems to have momentum and more reason for a strong voter turnout but Trump has become the standard bearer for the GOP and the house won’t flip if conservative votes show up.
On the senate side, the Kavanaugh debacle has become a driving issue. Again the GOP has regained the momentum with the recent spectacle in the Senate regarding the SC nominee.
Throw all the polling data out the window.....November is without a doubt a referendum on Donald Trump and also the future of the Federal judiciary.
It’s all about the turnout......
.
There is zero danger of losing either house.
We will likely gain in both House and Senate; there is no evidence to the contrary.
Perhaps the reason the mid-terms generally don't go well for the incumbent party is that their voters tend to stay home. Trump is giving us a reason to get out and vote, so I hope the turnout is strong.
Ellison was found not guilty by a democrat lawyer who said without video evidence it can’t be proven. He has no authority, it’s just his opinion
Ellison was found "not guilty" only by a Democrat lawyer, who conducted a 36-hour "investigation."
Of course, the media headlines made it appear Ellison was unjustly accused and fully cleared.
Not true.
Polls show WRT hearing believability, it’s a wash.
And, for Democrats, that is an absolute nightmare.
They connived like thieves.....had it all planned.
They’d lacerate Kav and Repubs ......and collect the votes at midterm.
Too frickin’ bad.....that aint happening.
When did that happen? As I understand it Ellison's never been charged with anything let alone found not guilty.
Kavanaugh backlash starting to be visible ...
bookmark
...”Kavanaugh backlash starting to be visible.”...
I think that is right. We could begin to see more stories highlighting the holes in the accuser’s stories in the left wing media. I won’t hold my breath, but if they have an ounce of fairness in their souls, at least a few of them will jump the shark and do it.
I live in AZ CD1. There are a lot of ads for CD2 (McSally’s seat), but only a few traditional Mediscare ads against Rogers. I have never seen one of her ads. The incumbent Dem was considered a shoo-in so I am surprised that Wendy Rogers is in contention.
In CD2 Republicans are running a Hispanic women (never covered by the MSM) who is an underdog to a phony “moderate” Democrat.
I fully expect McSally to beat Sinema.
I actually have hope for MN.
It is a well known fact that MN has the nation’s longest streak of going demonrat in Presidential elections dating back to 1972. It is a lesser known fact that MN had an even longer streak of being to the left of the national popular vote dating back to 1956. That is — until 2016. While CrookedH did squeak by in 2016, it was by a slimmer margin than she won the national popular vote by.
MN has been trending gradually to the right ever since it had the ignominy in 1984 of being the only state to vote against RWR.
I predict that the next time a Republican wins a presidential election, it will include MN’s electoral votes for the first time since 1972.
Another McCain-Flake-McSally hack? Or is this candidate for real?
YUGE. This would be a flip, to go with the MN seats, and possibly NV and the FL7 seat where the D candidate just died.
But the Ds now need every single seat on their board. Coffman had internal poll last night showing a tie. (oops!) Comstock is apparently ahead now. Faso in NY19 doing well, and FL27-—a supposedly sure loss, now leaning R.
I keep saying this: I don’t see where they get 23-24 seats.
Maybe 10.
I fear McSally is just another McCain/Flake.
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