I suspect the race is different than what is being polled for the specific race because of the margin we see at this time for the Governor’s race. Certainly, the same people are not being polled when polling occurs for each race, but it is hard to reconcile a 19 point lead for Abbott vs only a 4.5 point lead for Cruz.
There are probably a few people who in the past might have voted for Cruz that will now vote for Rob O’Rourke, but I don’t think that many of the people that favor Abbott will not favor Cruz. If that is not the case, the perhaps Abbott is more jeopardy than we think, but I don’t think Abbott is in any jeopardy at all.
Not necessarily a gigantic victory for Cruz, but I think somewhere between 7 and 12 points, edging more towards 12.
The TX “democracy” is concentrating on Beto, not Lupe Valdez that much.