Ted is polling ahead by 9%... which is 800,000 votes in Texas (8.55m votes in 2016)... but 9% is also the closest that a Dem has been in Texas in many years, so the Left is over-hyping the possibilities in the race.
In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9% as well, 52-43. There were no TX Senate or Governor races in 2016, but in 2014, Sen John Cornyn won 61-34 (27 points), and Gov Abbott won 59-39 (20 pts). 9pts is a huge improvement for the bad guys.
People were pissed about his performance at the convention. It hurt him at the ballot box.