Posted on 07/26/2018 11:14:43 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Just a few months ago Democrats envisioned a “Blue Wave,” gaining 40-50 seats. Today their expectation have been tempered – and for good reason. Since 1946, Democrats have gained an average of 21 seats in the midterms when the president is a Republican. That gain would not be enough for a majority, where the Democrats need to gain 25 seats.
Using election data since 1946, on average the president’s party (Republican or Democratic) loses 21 seats in the first midterm election. But that average masks big swings, from a 63-seat loss in 2010 to an 8-seat gain in 2002. The median loss is just 15 seats. The current partisan makeup is 236-193 with 6 vacancies. RealClearPolitics puts Republicans as favorites in 202 seats, Democrats in 199 seats with 24 tossups.
One thing is for certain, the president’s party struggles in midterm elections because that’s how politics works. Presidents get elected by making a lot of promises to get elected. The result? The president’s voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency. Some of those voters drop out, while the opposition becomes united, not in policy preferences, but just in opposition to the president they didn’t vote for.
Average gains and losses are interesting, but they don’t tell the whole story. For one thing, in three of nine first midterms the president’s party was in the minority. Simply put: The fewer seats you have, the fewer you can lose. The average loss for the president’s party in the majority is 24 seats. However, on two occasions the president benefited from a major foreign policy bump. The successful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis saw President Kennedy’s approval rating jump into the 70s, dampening Democratic losses to merely 4 seats.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Not this time. Meet President Donald Trump, who always beats the odds.
RED WAVE coming as long as conservatives flood the polling places!
Like 2016 was Hillary’s turn ? LOL
>>The president’s voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency.
For most lackluster presidents that may be true.. not for Trump.
Not only are we not disappointed, we are stunned...maga.
A few months? Ever since the night of Nov 8, 2016.
The question then, as now: where were these 40-50 seats supposed to come from? What candidates - actual living breathing candidates - were they assuming or predicting would win these seats, especially in seats where ousting a GOP incumbent would be required?
I’m not sure historical precedents are predictive of 2018 results. These are unusual times.
Trump has turned everything upside down and backwards ,LOL
Larry Sabato, the idiot that predicted Hillary would win with 322
electoral votes begs to differ.
That's the key... getting them off their a**es at to the polls, because the Left is highly motivated this time around. They MUST be headed off!
“Presidents get elected by making a lot of promises to get elected. The result? The president’s voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency”.
This time we have a president who is delivering on his promises. The base is, and will remain, fired up this Nov.
All the Dems have to campaign on is “Resist”. People will reject that. Who wants to resist prosperity and other good things.
Actually, he is restoring things right side up and forwardly.
What are the statistics of first mid term when the POTUS and Congress are all of the same party?
B..B..Bu...But Dana PeRINO just now had some “expert” on Faux News trumpeting the latest Quinnipiac Poll and stating that the blue wave is gaining steam with uneducated whites turning against Trump in droves because of his tariff policies.
So what gives?
Right now I have about 27 seats competitive. But I admit I know little about many of these districts.
However, in the last week I heard from OhioWan that all House Rs will hold, and from top source in AZ that we will win McSally’s seat.
These get me to 27, but the point is I was concerned about them. Applying that logic, it figures that at least half the remaining seats are likely safe & I just haven’t talked to the right people.
That already leaves the Ds short even if they run the table on those 14. It’s in fact possible that the GOP will gain seats.
We have a president who is delivering on his promises and very good things are happening.
Our base is aware how critical the situation is and Dems must not be allowed to gain control of either house of Congress.
The base is fired up and will remain so.
The key will be getting out the vote.
Blue Ripple, maybe.
I’m going with you. You’re batting pretty good on these things. Enjoy your updates.
So as of today, how are you calling it?
House?
Senate?
so at an even chance, would you say the Rs will be at 215 in the House?
I’m merely quoting the story.
Amen !!!
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