That's the way I see it, too. And the article, after talking at length about why no civil war is possible, pretty much concludes or at least admits the possibility of the same thing by citing the similarities with Yugoslavia.
Actually, although my historical knowledge of the two conflicts (Spain & Yugoslavia) is hazy, I think we've got kind of a combination developing. Spain, I think, was primarily political and Yugoslavia - again, if I recall correctly - was ethnic. What is happening here and now is a mix.
The communists took Spain’s gold reserves and shipped them to Stalin in Moscow. Spain is just now recovering from that.
When discussing Spain and Yugoslavia, you have to add in the fact that both of those countries had a population of people who had some military training and backing, had other countries supporting the different sides, and there was no powerful overarching government that could overpower one side or the other in the short run.
Can you imagine Russia, the EU, or China trying to support the leftists with weapons or manpower in this conflict?
Try Lebanon.
If we have another Civil War, it will be like Lebanon.
It will be Urban vs. Suburban and Rural. The enemy won’t be in another state, but just down the road.
And it won’t happen in a vacuum. Imagine what the Chinese are going to be up to while we’re tearing ourselves apart.