This is a fairly built-up opera.
1. For the national election of Sep 2017, they (the news media and the various parties) basically left out any talk over migration or asylum policy. So a lot of this disturbance now is what they avoided last year.
2. The national public TV ‘squad’ is continually putting out bits and pieces of false info, which is making the situation hard to gauge by the regular guy on the street.
3. Seehofer has a list of roughly 63 actions he wants to take...however, the government has forced secrecy over all but one of these items. That one item has forced the idea of government collapse. The other 62 items? Unknown, and people are asking the media why aren’t you discussing these solutions in public?
4. If Seehofer leaves, the coalition might continue on, with the Green Party stepping in. However, most folks are asking...so we get the fake migration agenda with the team (entirely)? And the Greens would get the position of Interior Minister, which a fair number of CDU folks might laugh over and question the wisdom of that idea.
5. This also all leads to two state elections in the fall....Hessen and Bavaria. Total anger by some CDU folks is occurring and they want to enter the Bavarian race (something they haven’t done in fifty years). There was this unwritten rule that the CSU would only be featured in Bavaria, and the CDU in the other 15 states. Some news media folks are suggesting total chaos for the CSU. But I tend to think they are simply creating fake headlines, but this might hurt Merkel and her CDU party more.
6. Where this leads onto? With the CSU out, and the Greens in....mostly a weak and marginal government, with the next national election in 3 years. Their alternate would be to force a fresh new election now (likely in Oct/Nov), and it’d heavily damage the left-of-center folks (the SPD), and Merkel’s party (CDU). Together, I doubt if they could muster more than 45-percent of the national vote.
My gut feeling is that Seehofter leaves....the CSU quits the coalition, and the Greens fill the void. The public just grumbles because there really isn’t anyone around to provide any real solution. Most of the Berlin crowd will tell you...ONLY the EU can fix things....which makes the public ask why bother having a Bundestag?
Or Congress.
Just what Germany needs....NOT
The CSU needs to get out and turn hard right and then become a viable alternative to the average man on the street who is fed up with Merkel's immigration blunders.