Posted on 05/02/2018 9:01:49 AM PDT by SMGFan
The fight over the House majority is hardly a done deal, but it’s safe to say that GOP control is in increasing jeopardy and worries among Republicans for their Senate majority are growing.
Republican concern over House losses begin with open seats—they have 38 members not standing for reelection, either retiring or running for other offices, to only 18 for Democrats. Obviously open seats in safe districts don’t matter much, but in more hostile terrain, they are key. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman points out that “since 1990, in cases where a House member of the president’s party has not sought reelection two years after the president lost his/her district, the party has batted 0 for 23 attempting to defend the seat.”
(Excerpt) Read more at cookpolitical.com ...
IOW, they are looking at which ones they plan to NOT defend. Thanks SMGFan.
Hillary is a lock, no path for Trump, it’s all over Republicans might as well stay home.
Just Like Donald Trump defy the odds in 2016 and actually want a quite convincing victory I believe that these midterms may not turn out just the way the Liberals are desperately hoping they will. It is a different time and there is a different man in the White House who has all along the five political norms and has come out on top.
I think what is going to be very important in the upcoming midterms is how this North Korean deal turns out and what happens with the Supreme Court on the immigration restrictions and the continuing success of the economy.
I don’t believe one word from Charlie Cook... or Larry Sabato.
They won’t even try to be semi accurate until about one week before the midterms.
And, even then, they will fudge.
We gain at least 5 in the Senate, and I still think we easily hold the House....
just like we did in 2016.
...they have 38 members not standing for reelection, either retiring or running for other offices, to only 18 for Democrats. Obviously open seats in safe districts don't matter much, but in more hostile terrain, they are key. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman points out that "since 1990, in cases where a House member of the president's party has not sought reelection two years after the president lost his/her district, the party has batted 0 for 23 attempting to defend the seat."
A reasonable effort to defend the "safe" seats (assuming the Pubbie in that seat or running to fill the vacancy isn't just a weasel) is just fine, but the strongest effort always must be those "in-between" seats, because there simply aren't that many "safe" seats. Think of McCain in his "safe seat" in Arizona -- anyone seriously believe that his overwhelming victory in election after election was due to anything but the fact that he was a political weathervane?
Most of the candidates for open seats have not be chosen yet. Success in November depends the best Republican , weakest Democrat.
I don't think the Demwits stand a chance in the midterms, and I think they'll have some scares and close calls where they don't expect. Also we can count on the Partisan Media Shills of covering only the occasional outlier, where a Pubby lost..
Well, the GOPe has been spending too much of its energy running against Trump and proving themselves to be untrustworthy worms. When a party runs against the base that elected the President, there will be consequences.
Attention GOP: get on the Trump Train and win. Whine and go home.
In 2016, the media all said that there was no way Trump was going to win and that the republicans were just desperately trying to salvage the House and Senate.
Almost the same story, different year.
has the cook report ever been right?
here’s what they said about the 2016 election:
“Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate - women, millenials, independents and Latinos - make him the initial November underdog.”
The report also concluded that undecided voters, a crucial group that will likely sway the outcome of the election, are “more hostile to Trump than Clinton.”
According to the report in 2016 the Democrats will definitely win 16 states, likely win another three and then an additional three states will lean Democratic. The GOP will definitely win 19 states, likely win another two and then an additional two states will lean Republican. Iowa, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio remain toss-ups.
Based on these predictions Clinton would blow Trump out of the water in a general election, beating him 304-190 electoral votes, not including the 44 electoral votes in the “toss up” states.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cook-report-trump-vs-clinton-could-be-blowout
I wouldn’t put too much stock in the nonsense that the “non-partisan” cook report vomits up ...
But open seats, 2 years into President term , same party . In the past there has been poor outcomes. GOP could lose significant numbers of seats. But gain in Senate.
Like economic predictions, political predictions are better after the fact.
I have had the misfortune to watch daytime TV sitting in Doctors offices. GOP strategists better be watching because DNC adds are absolutely disgusting with pure character assassination, lies, slick graphics and visuals. A large portion of the idiot class of Americans get their information by the morning and afternoon brainwashing and fluff. It is time to fight fire with fire.
Yup. And Cook was certain Hillary was a lock.
Not saying there isn’t cause for concern, but the only thing these guys are “experts” at is being wrong.
What should be the GOP’s midterm mission: Target as many vulnerable Dims as possible.
Typical of the Loser Party. Even when they have every reason on Earth to win, their strategy becomes “don’t lose.”
Regardless, I believe the “blue wave” is a myth, and the Dems are going to be really pissed come November.
Agreed. Being complacent could cost Ralph Norman his SC-5 seat (Charlotte spilling over into SC) and Trey Gowdy's open SC-4 seat where 13 GOP wannabes are vying for the nomination which could split the party vote in the fall. Still both seats should be safe if conservatives get out and vote.
Sorry, voice to text is definitely not my friend
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