There are now about 40 open pub seats, which is alot of open seats. An open seat is easier for the opposition to win and by having a favorable electoral climate, the dems are able to attract better candidates, which gives them a better chance of winning.
So yes, a narrow republican win is not good in a district that should be a landslide win.
Special elections are a different animal than a general election - a lot of people dont know there is an election today
I don’t think a close margin means much in this election.
I voted (Surprise, AZ) as an early vote, walk in for Lesko.
My brother (Independent) was reminded by me to vote today- he didn’t.
Looks like about a 25%-30% turn out rate.
About 100,000 early votes to date.
Approx. 450,000 registered voters.
35,000 GOP 30,000 DEM 25,000 IND (Tally from a couple of weeks ago = 90K)
Lots of Lesko signs at the major intersections. (signs don’t vote)
Pennsylvania, wasn’t a blue wave (500 vote margin) anymore than Alabama was (no GOPe support/media onslaught/Moore didn’t fight the smears).
Democrats are DESPERATE! (see DNC lawsuit).
I predict Lesko by 7.5 points.
My take is there isn’t a high degree of enthusiasm for Lesko.
I sense some voter apathy in general for this special election.
http://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/6/0