“What Russia lacks is major military capability short of a nuclear attack. “
You nailed it. This reminds me of an elderly man with a 38 snub in his pocket. He has no options to run or fight, but he might use the only tool he has if it is a matter of survival in his mind.
More like the old man who used to have a 38 in his pocket but it rusted up years ago so he keeps a stick in there instead.
Only strategic weapon they have left is cutting off oil and gas to Europe, but then that's their entire economy...