Posted on 04/11/2018 9:33:35 AM PDT by Kaslin
Donald Trump achieved the presidency telling the American people he would "Make America Great Again."
Given that during eight years of Barack Obama's presidency there was not a single year in which national satisfaction, as measured by Gallup, averaged above 30 percent, tapping into Americans' general dissatisfaction with the state of the nation was good campaign strategy.
This February, national satisfaction reached the highest its been under Trump, 36 percent. However, in March it plunged back down to 28 percent. And this big drop was fueled by a big drop among Republicans. National satisfaction among Republicans dropped from 67 percent in February to 52 percent in March.
Maybe there's reason to believe that Trump's own Republican constituency is not buying that tariff saber-rattling and trade protectionism is what is going to make America "great again."
The stock market surged some 30 percent from Trump's election until the beginning of 2018. However, since the beginning of this year, with all the trade war rhetoric, it's now down 8 percent.
Estimated overall value of the U.S. stock market early 2018 was around $30 trillion. So 8 percent deterioration means a loss of wealth of $2.4 trillion.
A price tag of $2.4 trillion in lost wealth to allegedly combat a $376 billion trade deficit with China with tariffs suggests that this might not be the best course of action.
The trade deficit is the supposed boogeyman. In 2017, we sold $130 billion in product to China and bought $506 billion from them -- a $376 billion trade deficit. Suppose China just decided to stop selling to us and just bought from us? We'd have a $130 billion surplus with them. Would that be good?
Americans are buying $506 billion in raw materials and consumer goods from China because we want this stuff. It makes us better off. We like the low-priced products from China we find in our department stores. And the raw materials we buy from them result in cheaper finished products that we manufacture here in the U.S.
According to economics blogger Mark Perry, "38 Americans work in industries using steel and aluminum for every worker making steel or aluminum."
Veronique de Rugy of George Mason University's Mercatus Center reports that when George W. Bush imposed tariffs on steel in 2002, 200,000 workers in industries using steel lost their jobs the following year -- more than the total number of jobs in the steel industry that year.
What was the 30 percent stock market gain from Trump's election until early 2018 telling us? I believe these gains reflected the deregulation over this period, capped off with passage of the tax bill in December 2017.
These are the kind of measures that "Make America Great Again." Measures that advance our economic freedom and move control of politicians and government out of our lives.
We lose when politicians start picking winners and losers, whether domestically or internationally. Let the marketplace pick winners and losers.
Where should we be directing our priorities now?
A group of Hoover Institution economists, including former Secretary of State George Shultz, just published an op-ed in The Washington Post about the dire implications of the looming debt crisis in our country.
They write that soon the national debt will reach $20 trillion -- equal to the size of our entire GDP. This poses a serious threat to our economic well-being.
New projections from the Congressional Budget Office forecast unprecedented trillion dollar federal budget deficits as far as the eye can see.
Unrestrained spending produces these huge deficits, which we finance with debt. The main culprit, according to the Hoover experts, is entitlement programs -- Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
I think the president should focus attention and energy on this debt crisis, rather than on the dubious benefits of a trade war. Getting America's fiscal house in order will make America great again.
My witticism game is off apparently
The trade impalance addressed by Trump is an important part of the debt crisis. Regaining America’s economic and industrial edge raises the revenue to the government. Better, of course, would be in reducing expenses by, say, eliminating all the unnecessary and oppressive Agencies down to the original four Departments. That would actually solve the crisis but increasing revenue to the government(increasing taxation will reduce revenue) will ameliorate it a bit.
The writer sounds like anti Trump. The article is totally negative and has no hints on what they think Trump should do to reduce the debt, that is in the hands of anti Trump congress.
Which was loudly and continuously trumpeted by all the media outlets for all eight years...oh, wait...
Two ways to get debt down. Earn more, spend less. Trade increases earnings.
Yeah.....riiiiight....
In business he was adept at multi-tasking and delegating responsibility. What makes you think he is any less capable now?
“A price tag of $2.4 trillion in lost wealth to allegedly combat a $376 billion trade deficit with China with tariffs suggests that this might not be the best course of action.”
Is not really wealth if it can be lost over a political utterance.
A one-ounce gold Krugerrand coin remains one ounce of gold.
Tulips are still beautiful, but they no longer fetch astronomical prices.
In the old days one bought stock for a steam of future dividends. At a P/E of 12, it might take twelve years to get your investment back if you were in my current tax bracket and about 17 years at a typical tax bracket.
At current P/Es, you are looking at about 45 years on average to recover one’s “investment” via earnings after tax. One year of trade squabbles is insignificant.
Next, start cutting deadwood at the federal level, brutally. Pruning encourages new growth!
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Trade correction is the sole reasonable solution to the debt situation.
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A one-ounce gold Krugerrand coin continually buys about the same amount of goods.
Cannot say that about fiat ‘wealth.’
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This is the giveaway equation. Wall Street vs Main Street. The only calculus that's important to the writer is the $ concentrated in Wall street's hands not the hollowing out of the Nation's manufacturing sector and the loss of American jobs and the American Dream. Not to mention the weakening of our stance in case of hostilities with a foreign power or the stranglehold they have when we cannot manufacture American defensive necessities in America.
This is no patriot.
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>> “Next, start cutting deadwood at the federal level, brutally.” <<
Amen! (break the federal unions)
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Understatement!
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You ignore the sometimes extreme speculative swings in the price of gold, not just to the upside but to the downside. It does not track inflation. It’s a safe haven in times of economic fear and uncertainty therefore it spikes, then as the fear and uncertainty wanes the price of an ounce declines. This is always exacerbated by speculative buying and selling.
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Speculative spikes and sags are always brief when the price is not falsely controled by legislative fiat.
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No he shouldn’t focus on debt. He sould focus on both trade and debt.
Is it illegal to work on multiple issues at one time?
Medicare Part B really doesn’t cost the federal government very much.
Patients pay a 20% co-pay.
Covered persons pay Medicare Part B premiums meant to cover 25% of federal payouts.
Those are 40% of the Medicare Part B amounts paid to providers.
Then there’s federal income tax on Medicare Part B provider (direct/non-direct) income.
That’s probably about 30% on average of the Medicare Part B amount paid to providers.
The sum of 30% and 40% is 70%, leaving the federal government to subsidize about 30%.
The net cost of the federal government to subsidize $100 billion of Medicare Part B care is about $30 billion annually.
I have a passport. I get my expensive dental care in Mexico. I could get my expensive medical care in France.
exactly. they are the same problem, attempting to live off the largesse of someone else rather than the product of your own labor.
“I think the president should focus attention and energy on this debt crisis”
The spending is pretty much a done deal at this point.
The only option is to grow the revenue by making America great again, from sea to shining sea and not just in NY and SF metropolitan high end residential areas.
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