I do know that.
I also personally know a lot of farmers in red and purple states that are looking at a MASSIVE reduction in income over the tariffs. They are not happy.
Do you have any idea of the amount of soy, pork, and chicken we send to China? The margin for the producer is not that great, and these tariffs cut in to it.
Short term, I suspect China is stuck. But in 5 to 10 years they will find another source of their food. They view pork the way we view oil, and will do a lot to secure the supply.
The fallacy is that the Chinese will not pay the tariff and will cease to buy the ag products.
there is no real evidence that sales will not continue as buyers buy at the higher prices
Meanwhile in america, Trump collects the new tariffs and pays for the wall
In the big picture, is this not possible/likely?
China buys soybeans from Brazil/Argentina instead of from the US. Countries that would have brought from Brazil/Argentina can no longer do so (product being sold to China), so they buy from the US.
I see a similar possibility regarding Boeing airplanes. China no longer buys Boeing airplanes and buys Airbus. Other countries that wanted to buy Airbus can no longer do so because of a long waiting list (years of backlog), and buy Boeing airplanes because they are available must faster with Chinese buyers no longer in the queue.
Thoughts?