I agree with you there. We (the U.S.) have been quietly moving lots of heavy hitting equipment out of that area for well over a year (probably longer, my memory aint what it used to be). My personal thought is a deal has been struck surrounding Syria and Turkey being uppity is going to leave it open for a very harsh turn of events.
I believe a general agreement has been made among Russia, Turkey and Iran. But what they want and what is on the ground in Syria are 2 different things.
It’s been said, if we want to take Turkey and Syrian military out, we can. They could not stop us. It would have a price.
Russia? Putin is making blustering noise about his advanced weapons, he has some. But he cannot “win” a war with the US. Neither the US or Russia wants one.
So, we have what is often called, a Mexican Standoff in Syria. We are there, and we expect to help make a peace agreement to protect the people in the portion of Syria that we help control. It may not be a perfect agreement, but hopefully it will avoid another genocide like Turkey wants.
I believe Russia has set a trap for Erdogan. Erdogan has few friends. Ultimately, Turkey will loose on this one. He wants to gather up the Ottoman Empire again, but it has been dead 100 years.
Kurds have not yet given up on Afrin. Turks air support is the only reason Turkey prevailed so far. If stingers were suddenly available there, it would be a game changer.
This is not simple math. Lots of moving pieces. No one can see the outcome from here yet.