[AdmSmith]

For China, the timing is opportune. There has been extensive, divisive debate in its policy circles about how to handle North Korea, leading to a degree of paralysis. Beijing went along with wave after wave of Security Council sanctions primarily because Pyongyang was flagrantly disregarding its security interests, but also because they were the logical continuation of a tolerable status quo and the path of least resistance under relentless American pressure. And President Xi has been preoccupied with a series of Communist Party and government meetings and manoeuvres that have formalised and perpetuated his grip on power and launched a massive government shake-up.

Now Xi, with his authority unquestioned, his foreign policy team in place, and a DPRK-Republic of Korea (ROK) summit imminent, has seized the moment to reassert China’s pivotal role in managing inter-Korean tensions. Souring relations and a brewing trade war with the U.S. probably also shaped his calculus. North Korea is far from being China’s puppet, but it is an important card Beijing has to play in its intensifying strategic competition with Washington.

In an unusually detailed report, China’s state news agency Xinhua said the meeting was “unofficial” and a “strategic choice”, and that Kim came to Beijing out of “moral responsibility” – signalling that relations are frosty but fixable. According to that report, Xi also told Kim what he now must do if he wants China’s help: meet regularly at the level of decision-makers, communicate early and often, prioritise economic development, promote people-to-people exchanges, and agree to denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula as a long-term goal. One Chinese proposal not in Xinhua’s report may have been to host some forthcoming meetings. Symbolically and practically, that would cement the Middle Kingdom’s position.

If Xi gets his way, by year’s end Korean peninsula talks could be back in a dialogue framework shaped by China. North Korea would become a problem to be managed but not an imminent threat, denuclearisation again would be a distant political goal, and sanctions would evolve into an adjustable valve to manage pressure on Pyongyang. Order under heaven, from China’s perspective. But while that may be Beijing’s preferred route, the journey ahead is far less certain than that travelled by the train that brought the DPRK’s ruler to his first summit, and many factors could knock diplomacy off the rails, not least Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump themselves.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/china/china-moves-centre-stage-korean-peninsula-peace-efforts

[TigerLikesRooster]

It appears that China decided not to veer off it historic pattern. It just wanted to tame N. Korea. It is probably hoping that it can increase leverage vis-a-vis N. Korea, better able to push its agenda on N. Korea. A gradual increase in its control. Starting with NK economy and expanding it to political and military affairs. It wants to turn NK into a real puppet.

Taking over the control of NK economy will help greatly. If NK population begin to feel that their economic well-being has dramatically improved after China's economic control, China can begin to erode the political base of Kim Jong-un and his ilks. A slow takeover of NK is probably China's goal, and Kim is likely to know it. He will try to resist it. I think China sees that his option is markedly narrowed due to Trump's aggressive policy.

At the same time, China's policy would be also geared to use NK issue to fight off Trump's trade offensive to China, threatening to undermine his goal of NK denuclearization unless Trump relents. I think Trump has to make decisive move in next few months.