Posted on 03/08/2018 8:20:09 AM PST by Republic Rocker
President Trump's national approval rating is still historically low 39.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics average and 40.2 percent at FiveThirtyEight but "as state-by-state polling of Trump's approval rating shows, the national mood really isn't so national," Nathaniel Rakich notes at FiveThirtyEight. "Voters in different corners of the country differ in how deep their anger runs and at whom it's directed. ... To take control of the Senate, it doesn't much matter how Democrats perform elsewhere if they can't win both Nevada and Arizona and defend red-state Democrats in places like Missouri and Indiana." According to a new poll by Axios and SurveyMonkey, that could be very difficult for Democrats to pull off.
I’m still not totally convinced Scott won’t veto that Fla gun bill. If he signs it I doubt he takes that senate seat from Nelson. I’m originally from N Fla. Its major gun territory. So is the panhandle. Very conservative.
Yes, those should have been slam dunk wins, but in the primary we get split votes and end up with fringe candidates.
What?!
Real Clear Politics average of polls has Nelson over Scott by 3.8%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html
I say, if the republicans plan on their messaging being what it is in the PA Special election, Dems will pick up a good bit more than that in the house.
Their messaging is not going to motivate the MAGA voter to turn out. And Turnout is the key to midterms.
Dems are going to show up, they are motivated. The messaging they are using in the PA special election is NOT going to motivate the I and D Trump voter to come to the polls. It will get the Republican base, but that isn’t going to be enough.
If they don’t fix their messaging, I expect a lot more turnover, as marginal districts will get overwhelmed by D enthusiasm.
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