It’s nuts that this opposing faction of pro-regime fighters went right into the gates of hell and got blown away. They must have had some idea what they were getting into. At the least, it looks very unprofessional and could be the result of bad leadership, who knows. It’s like Mattis said, they were perplexed as to why they were doing this, laying portable bridges over the Euphrates, firing at the SDF troops.
The only thing that fits is Putin was testing Trump. Putin was wanting to see how many red lines he could cross. He learned that with Obama the red line was written in pencil. Every military response down to the squad level had to be okayed by Obama political operatives. President Trump gave the military a mission and let them decide how to accomplish it. Trump’s red line is the red line and the military is guns free after that.
The larger objective IMHO was in shaping the battlefield for a future attack. Putin gambled with his merc’s. He calculated that Trump is in a weakened political position and would not want to risk open conflict with Russians. Wagner group would open up an avenue of approach and set the precedent of battle groups moving past the red line. Future combined Syrian, IRGC group would mimic Wagner and attack USForces. If they killed or captured a large number of US troops it might force us to withdraw.
Putin made a basic miscalculation. President Trump is not operating under the same basic premise as Obama. Trump will not shrink from confrontation.
Putin’s C & C of this op is suspect. There are open lines of communication between US and Russian forces. After the first bomber strike the Wagner group had to be rendered incapable of performing the mission. The Russians had to know that gunships and arty were on the way. Why did they not call the US command and use some cover story to request a cease fire to retreat and pull the KIA and WIA out. Either the Merc/regular army command and control are inadequate or it was just piss poor planning with commanders not up to the task.
Future threats must be considered. The Russians will be much more hands off next time. They’ll use their Iranian Guard counterparts so as to avoid Russian casualties and questions in their ability to project power regionally. The IRGC will aggressively plan to inflict as much political and military damage to US Forces as possible. They have a target within range and forces available. They will continue to explore their options.