Posted on 01/21/2018 3:21:03 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Believe it or not, the 2018 election is only months away. And while talking heads and media elites focus exclusively on Republican election challenges, the electoral map is chock-full of vulnerable Democratic candidates running in Trump territory. Here are the top Democrats poised for 2018 defeat:
1. Sen. Claire McCaskill (Democrat, Missouri)
The definition of a corrupt career politician, Sen. McCaskill is a personification of the Washington swamp and the Democratic Party’s most vulnerable incumbent. Who can forget her failure to pay $287,000 in property taxes on a private plane? Or using $40 million in government subsidies to boost her husband’s real estate business?
Even her fellow Democrats have referred to Sen. McCaskill as “corrupt,” making her a boon to opposition researchers.
And it’s taken on a toll on her approval ratings in Missouri. Only 42 percent of Missourians approve of Sen. McCaskill, after she was first elected to the Senate with only 54 percent of the vote against a weakened Todd Akin. (Akin infamously coined the phrase “legitimate rape,” which the mainstream media ruthlessly leveraged to delegitimize him.)
Her blind “resistance” against President Trump, who won Missouri by a whopping 18.5 percent (over 500,000 votes) in 2016, only makes matters worse. Sen. McCaskill has voted against the president nearly 60 percent of the time, giving Republicans very clear attack lines to defeat her in 2018.
2. Sen. Bill Nelson (Democrat, Florida)
Poor Bill Nelson. Reelection was always going to be an uphill battle in a state that President Trump won by roughly 120,000 votes, and former Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) likely entrance into the race only makes the hill steeper.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Yup, shes to far left for most of Minnesota. she will do well in the large cities though.
I wonder if that is not part of the rats plan for the shut down. to delay refunds. that’ll piss off people getting big EITC checks.
“Sacrificial lamb” is cop out excuse. They expected a win but like Moore, she was a flawed/entitled candidate.
You don’t recruit, fund, then sacrifice a candidate leading to a loss of face.
Casey is an empty suit running on his daddy's good (Pro-life) name.
Especially in DNC state
Deliver us from Nellie. Plastic face ... or is it botox? He’s creepy to look at. The influx from Puerto Rico may skew this however.
Uncle Joe in WV is like that ratty but comfortable bathrobe you would hate to throw away. Given that his likely GOP opponent (Morrissey) is a carpetbagger, I would not bet the farm against Manchin.
Montana is farmers, old people, Indians, public employee unions, college towns and a flood of rich West Coast leftists, all of them panting to vote for Tester again.
In our 2016 open House race techie millionaire Gianforte beat a bankrupt, lying, cheating, dope-smoking tax-evader by seven points, after President Trump had carried the state by, what, 27 points?
Heitkamp polled at 55% as late as November, the President praised her as a "good woman" (even as she was back-stabbing him), she's a smart campaigner and also has farmers, seniors and the large college towns in her pocket.
The republicans are having a hard time fielding a reasonable candidate to oppose her.
I would bet you $100 payable to FR that she wins.
Cory Gardner in Colorado. He might as well be a democrat and will be gone...
No, Guy. The 2018 elections ARE NOT ONLY A FEW MONTHS AHEAD.
Spring is ONLY A FEW MONTHS AHEAD. Taxes are only a few months ahead, but the congressional elections are not only a few months ahead if you are talking about the November congressional elections (not the primaries).
While this is a minor point to your column, it really is necessary to keep things in a “time” perspective.
However, I will give you some slack if you are talking about any Chicago congressional elections. Remember their saying is “Vote early, vote often”
They all should lose their seats. Vote em all out!!!!
While Joe Manchin did not change parties yet, I think he will prior to the next election.
09/21/2017 article in dailycaller.com
Will West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin Switch Parties Next Week?
The Governor of West Virginia, Jim Justice, changed his party affiliation to Republican in August. He knew that Trump was a big winner in WV and that there was little downside politically to changing sides to the GOP as that party is now favored by voters. Consider Democrat Joe Manchin, who is running for re-election in as Senator in West Virginia. Why should he stay with a party that looks to have lost the state. What advantage does being a Democrat give him? Governor Justice has just endorsed Manchin for re-election in what appears to be a hotly contested election for 2018. Manchin is apparently facing an uphill battle, but that might quickly change. Suppose, with the assistance of President Trump, Manchin looked at the writing on the wall and decided to change party affiliation, just like Jim Justice.
CNN Article from August 9 2017
The 10 Senate seats most likely to switch parties in 2018
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/09/politics/competitive-senate-races-2018-midterms/index.html
1. Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
It’s one of the earliest races to take shape — and it’s all bad news for Heller.
Danny Tarkanian, who has lost five campaigns over the last decade but won the GOP nomination in four of those five races, is taking on Heller in the Republican primary. And Rep. Jacky Rosen was hand-picked by Harry Reid to challenge Heller in the general election.
2. Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Missouri attorney general Josh Hawley is moving toward a run against McCaskill. He’s well-regarded by donors and operatives. And now that several Republicans who were widely expected to run, including Rep. Ann Wagner, have decided against entering the race, he could be looking at a clearer field.
Deepening Democrats’ concerns is that Missouri is rapidly moving rightward. Trump won the state with 57% support last year, and Sen. Roy Blunt was re-elected despite Missouri secretary of state Jason Kander running perhaps the best Democratic Senate campaign of the entire cycle.
3. Indiana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly
Just like McCaskill benefited from Todd Akin’s now-infamous comments about “legitimate rape” in 2012, Donnelly benefitted when his Republican opponent, state treasurer Richard Mourdock, asserted in a debate that pregnancies resulting from rape are “God’s will.”
Neither of the two Republicans running against Donnelly — Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita — are likely to make such a mistake in 2018.
However, this primary battle will be nasty and personal. Rokita and Messer have already called each other “unhinged.” Rokita attacked Messer for moving his family to Washington after being elected to Congress, and criticized a contract Messer’s wife has for part-time legal work for the city of Fishers.
4. West Virginia
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin
If you had any doubt about this state’s heavily Republican leanings, Gov. Jim Justice erased it when he switched parties at a rally alongside Trump — who carried West Virginia with 68% of the vote — last week.
But Manchin isn’t your average Democrat.
Perhaps more than any other senator, he was helped by Trump’s victory.
5. Arizona
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Jeff Flake
Before Flake can even worry about a Democratic challenger, he has to sweat a potentially formidable primary from his own party.
6. Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Tester is up for re-election in a state where Trump won 56% of the vote. So it seemed like a major pickup opportunity for Republicans — that is, until Greg Gianforte body-slammed a reporter on the eve of his special election victory in a House race.
You’re saying: Wait, what?
Here’s how it’s all connected: Gianforte was a top prospect to run for Montana governor in 2020. But after his body-slam of The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs, he’s seen politically as damaged goods. So Montana attorney general Tim Fox — who was likely to run against Tester — now has his eyes on the governor’s office instead.
7. North Dakota
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp
On paper, it seems Heitkamp ought to be at the very top of this list. She’s a Democrat who barely eked out a victory in 2012 running for re-election in a state where Trump won 64% of the vote.
However, Heitkamp — who hasn’t officially announced she’s running for re-election herself, but is fundraising like a candidate — has $3 million in the bank, she’s held events all across a state with a small enough population that retail politics works, and she doesn’t have a Republican opponent.
8. Wisconsin
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin
Unseating Baldwin didn’t get any easier when Rep. Sean Duffy, perhaps Republicans’ strongest potential recruit, decided against running.
So far, Marine Corps veteran and businessman Kevin Nicholson is in the race, while state Sen. Leah Vukmir, businessman Eric Hovde and others are weighing bids of their own.
Boosting Republicans’ prospects here is a strong, battle-tested party built by Gov. Scott Walker, who has won three gubernatorial elections already.
9. Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
The well-known Brown’s populist, anti-free trade brand fits Ohio’s white working-class voters better than Hillary Clinton’s message did in 2016. But this is still a state where Trump won by 9 percentage points.
Brown is headed into a likely rematch against state treasurer Josh Mandel. Why this is a precarious race for Brown: Mandel has $3.3 million in the bank and national Republicans have shown they are willing to spend heavily on Ohio — even to back a candidate they don’t love.
10. Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
This one’s all about Florida Gov. Rick Scott. In an extraordinarily expensive state, Scott — whose term as governor ends next year — could pump tens of millions of his own dollars into a race against the tough, well-known incumbent Nelson.
Scott is clearly interested in maintaining a voice in national politics. In May, he launched his “New Republican” super PAC. And Trump has lobbied Scott to run against Nelson.
The question is whether the two-term executive is interested in being just one of 100 — and the junior senator to Florida’s Marco Rubio.
If Scott enters the race, this one rockets up the list.
Honorable mention
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is waiting to see how the Republican field shakes out in a state Trump narrowly won in 2016. Meanwhile, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was actually outraised by Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2017’s second quarter — showing that, if things really break right for Democrats, O’Rourke could be an online fundraising darling headed into the fall of 2018.
I’d love to see Chris Murphy get beat, I think Connecticut might kick Murphy and a few Dems CD-2 and CD-5, with a Republican wave.
Anyhow, you get the idea. She was supposed to get ousted before only to get re-elected. Those folks in MO seem to find a way to keep her around.......
Manchin probably doesn’t want to switch because former state governor, Arch Moore’s daughter is a rising Rep star in that state.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelley_Moore_Capito
You’re the guy who had Guagdano winning the Trenton statehouse.
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