1) Current edge is 239-194 or 46 difference.
2) Rs have vastly outraised Ds in $$ at every single level, four or five to one.
3) Voter registrations in battleground states continue to run in R favor. We can’t track every state, or even all of the battleground states, but in all but the bluest of states (OR, NJ, CA) the trend is to Rs. Even in CO, which was moving steadily D for three years, it has plateaued.
True, registration does NOT equal victory-—look at AL where 685,000 Rs stayed home from the previous November. Still, the single best indicator of how a person will vote is party ID. If we get the base out, we’ll win, because the economic tide is completely with us.
4) Speaking of economics, Rs just have to run on Trumpism and the economic growth, and it should be a cinch.
5) Way too early to pick a house race, let alone 435. Many places, the candidates haven’t even announced.
6) One of the biggest non-discussed issues is the number of Rs not running. I think 90% of these have something to do with the sex fund scandal, that they are being blackmailed and as long as they step down, nothing will come out. The good news is that of that fund, some 100 names are yet to be released/made public, and at least 60-70 of those will be Ds. (A higher percentage because so far 24 Rs have said they won’t run vs. 7 Ds). I think you’ll see A LOT of those names come out. We have no idea how that will shake up the 2018 races.
The one big pitfall is CANDIDATES. We need solid candidates in each race. It’s looking like we should keep the Senate plus 2-5 with what’s there now, but the sad thing is that had more R governors/congressmen been more aggressive, we could have had a supermajority in 2018. I don’t see how we get that now.
Thanks for high-quality information!