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That is certainly one way to look at it and I agree with you to some degree but people would be foolish to simply explain it away as an anomaly.

The Democrats lost election after election once Obama was elected and the same can happen to Trump if people assume it’s in the bag.

I don’t think Moore lost because people ‘thought it was in the bag’. He lost because enough Republican voters couldn’t bear the thought of voting for him, so they wrote in the name of another Republican—I don’t think too many voted for the Democrat. The democrats, seeing blood in the water did turn out. Moore lost, but Republicans did get more votes in the race.

That said, I don’t think that President Trump’s supporters are blasé and I don’t think they will be next November—but we’ll see.