He won statewide election in 2013. Why would it be unreasonable to believe that absent those unprovable accusations he would have done so again?
Moore would have won had the party not stabbed him in the back. He almost did anyway. In fact, it is not yet completely over, and he may yet win, though it's looking unlikely.
Moore barely squeaked by in an election where Romney carried 60% of the state. He was also soundly beaten in two gubernatorial races; 2006 and 2010.