Moore wins by >= 4%.
Usually the people in the campaign offices have a good idea of where things are heading before the polls close. They have ID’d there known supporters and can tell if they are getting a good turnout. I worked many elections in Canada and we knew poll-by-poll where we were strong and weak, and how to assess turnout.
Only 4%? I think if he wins it will be by 8 or 9 percent.