A Credible Peace Plan, at Last

Yes potentially very exciting. I try not to get too excited since we’ve seen many opportunities squandered. I am pleased to see Trump working this his way, unbeholden to the decades of diplomatic failures.

In many areas of his administration we can see Trump has very personal and unique views, and is pushing ideas that could result in real positive change. No surprise to see his list of enemies and to hear them cry like babies. But he is doing what he said he would do - slower than I want, and not always in agreement with him - but given the massive opposition from the swamp including his own party he’s working them pretty good and playing “3D chess” and “triangulating” as they say.

According to the report, if he rejects it he is out.

Hamas is broke, mostly because Qatar can no longer fund them. So there is an opportunity for one power to retake control of Gaza and rule WB - perhaps Marwan Barghouti or another rising leader. And having 1 political entity with monopoly use of force is one of the many things the Palestinians absolutely need to have if they expect to run a state, any state, anywhere. No government can rule if they have dozens of armed militias allowed to roam free, attack across borders and administer street justice at whim. They need the rule of law and 1 political entity to enforce it. Now there is a chance to crush Hamas and force the others in line.

The question has to be put to them bluntly: Do you want a viable, contiguous state with lots of support from around the world? Or do you want a truncated, bifurcated, poor and overcrowded state that will keep you in conflict and your people in refugee camps. If the Saudis and GCC formally endorse this plan, with Egyptian assent, they will have to say yes. To say no is to prove to the world their aim is not a viable prosperous state for their people but something sinister and ugly. If this deal is really being proposed then it is put up or shut down time for the Palestinians.

At the UN, the US should propose that Sinai becomes the new Palestine. Those living in Judea and Samaria can either leave for Sinai with a stipend from the UN or they can be absorbed as citizens of Israel, obeying all laws of the land.

The UN can do something useful and help build the new Palestine as a “green” country. This way they can test the proof of concept of a country that is 100% green. There will be defensible borders for Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Well, the UN doesn’t have the power to create countries or order countries to donate land to people who want a country. And we sure dont want them to even think they do! All the UN can do is vote to accept a country into membership. For that to happen, the people have to declare their independence.

And even if the UN does accept a new member state, the UN cannot dictate its border. So the only way a deal like this will work is if Egypt agrees.

Egypt is in a bind. They surely do not want to give up territory no country does. But they did recently surrender 2 disputed islands to Saudi Arabia in return for billions in direct investment. Now if you recall during Clinton years, he really pushed hard for a peace deal. So much so that Yassir Arafat has the distinction of being the most frequent foreign visitor to the White House during his term. A pretty rotten distinction but it does tell us how hard Clinton tried. And at the time, 1990s dollars, he pledged $30 billion if the Palestinians would take the deal. Arafat rejected.

But that number is out there...inflation adjusted its probably $50 billion. That comes to around $7500 for every Palestinian man woman and child. Of course the deal is different and if Egypt comes along they will expect to receive the lions share in the form of development aid, military, security arrangements, infrastructure and industrial investment. And even with all that, I bet they would not give the land but instead give a 99 year lease much like Hong Kong had.

The art of any deal is knowing what the other side wants, and giving it to them if you can. We (the western world) can give Egypt what it wants. The question is what do the Palestinians really want. Do they want a state, an economy, to resettle refugees and live in peace and prosperity? Or do they want to continue fighting for something they are very unlikely to ever get, and losing all their allies in the process ?

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