[apillar]

Alabama has roughly a 60/30/10 Republican/Democrat/Independent electorate. These polls that are showing Jones beating Moore are massively oversampling democrats and independents. One poll this weekend had a 41R/40D/19I electorate. When questioned on how they got those numbers when the electorate is 60R/40D/10I, the pollsters essentially stated, “Uhhmm....Well, we just assumed that one third of Republican voters would be disillusioned and sit out the election while democrats and independents would come out at Presidential election year levels.”

[txhurl]

So then, if you randomly strip out D and I responses to get those numbers down to the real ratio of R/D/I, the results would go back to 10pt. lead for Moore.