Posted on 11/08/2017 10:07:06 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
President Trump has an approval rating of 38 percent. That’s not good. And when a president’s polls are not good, members of his party tend to suffer when elections roll around. That is what happened Tuesday night in Virginia, New Jersey and in the suburbs of New York City.
Do not fall for efforts made by people on all sides obsessed with slicing and dicing raw voting data to complicate this whole 2017 elections business. You’ll be reading about how maybe it wasn’t all so bad or maybe it was far worse than it looks. Mostly, it’s exactly how it looks, and that is bad for Republicans now and bad for them over the next year.
Actually, one form of needless complication helped make the Democratic landslide in Virginia something of a surprise.
Some pollsters who felt as though they had missed Trump voters in 2016 adjusted aspects of their Virginia polling to try and make sure they had a better picture of the electorate this time. And in so doing, they overcorrected, overestimating the number of GOP voters and undersampling Democrats.
What the results suggest is that it’s highly unlikely Republican candidate Ed Gillespie ever had a prayer. But the 2016 results so freaked out everyone in politics they lost confidence in their ability simply to see things plain.
Trump won the presidency with approval ratings that should’ve finished him. And because that happened, pros figured it might happen again with Republican candidates in the Age of Trump. That’s why as late as Tuesday morning it was almost fashionable among the cognoscenti to think Gillespie would win.
Nope.
Bottom line: Trump is unpopular, and that hurts Republican candidates. Period.
It hurts them because, while polls might tell you Trump has Republicans in his pocket, that’s less meaningful than appears.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Just because the Post isn't NeverTrump that doesn't mean it won't let NeverTrump columnists post.
Try a search John Podhoretz NeverTrump
We had a election in eastern Jackson county Missouri on Tuesday to replace a Republican state senator who was appointed to a state job. The Democrats ran a leftist woman against Republican state legislator. Even with a independent candidate who was put on the ballot with democratic help the Republican won 51% to 42% with the independent getting 7%. Most likely the votes that the independent got would have gone mainly to the Republican. I can’t understand why votes in democratic states show any real trend. I need to see real evidence.
Where was a single poll that said DJT would win the 2016 election??? Podhoretz has been as anti-Trump from Day One as Rachel Maddow and Ana Navarro.
John P is the head cheerleader of the never trump traitors .
What planet were you visiting ?
Boring Ed G is Dull Bush bot Retread .
This open borders loser already LOST the Senate race two years ago in VA and the Never Trump Goe that own VA decide to rerun this bushie front man Loser .
Just get those tax cuts done. People like more money in their pocket.
65 percent like the economy stupid.
Trump needs to make deep cuts to the Fed Government people
want that
True .
But
That tax bill is a disaster removing home interest and property deductions
. And in many cases we are paying more in taxes so federal fat cats get there gold .
That Treasonous Ryan is not cutting spending .
The bill protects all the fat cats lobbyists and balances the mess on he backs of a dwindling tax payer base .
Cut spending .
OK JPod, I’m all for facing facts.
The facts are that the Republicans #1 priority is getting rid of Trump. Whatever it takes to accomplish this, their main objective, they will do.
Right now, they are just slyly preventing him from having any accomplishments which require the collaboration of the Legislative Branch, as they wait for Mueller to give them a fig leaf behind which they can begin removal proceedings.
McConnell has a pool of about 20 Senators to whom he can assign the three “no” votes necessary to stop any Trump initiatives from passing.
What they want and need is to get the water level in the swamp back up to normal. For this, they are quite willing to lose both Houses of Congress.
To break this Gordian knot the Uniparty has constructed, there needs to be an opposition force in the 2018 elections. Bannon is working on the Senate, but what’s really needed is a House campaign in all 435 districts, for which I fear it is already too late.
Once the people realize Hillary is the real Russian colluder and the media ignored it and lied about Trump for a year, there will be a backlash that will lift Trump’s numbers. Nobody ever turned out a President who lowered unemployment, raise wages, raised the stock market.
Home mortgage is capped at 500k and no second house deductions. I think that is fair.
I also think Lib states should not be able to have frugal states resident pay for the Lib states Union benefits and socialist state gov. programs.
The “real evidence” you are looking for is not in election returns, they are merely a prop in a disinformation campaign whose purpose is to make Trump fail in Congress, to let the Democrats retake both Houses so that Trump’s removal can proceed.
If Ryan (Romney) and McConnell (Bush) were on the Trump train, none of this would be happening.
The rats and the piubes are in the same bed together they’re playing a game with us, “you win this time we will win next time” meet the boss same as the old boss, who is fooled by this? As soon as trump came on the scene we knew for sure
Reaction to the repubs not getting anything done? Build the damn wall, keep muzzards out, and they’ll vote repub again.
Despite Trump’s valiant leadership, we are totally and completely screwed.
We lose Congress in 2018, the Left removes Trump, then removes every last protection we enjoy under our Constitution.
And for all the braggadocio about armed resistance — it’s never going to happen. Sheep to the slaughter, Leftism triumphant, a new Dark Ages.
I am beyond despondent for the future of our nation.
We remain stymied legislatively by the filibuster. It's not a McConnell/RINO conspiracy; that mantra is an exercise in denial. The problem is numbers. McConnell has 52 in the caucus; two of them are named Collins and McCain, and a couple others are highly unreliable. The rest are reasonably solid. But the filibuster is killing every legislative initiative even if McConnell can round up a simple majority. At the moment, it is driving the Republican need to pass tax reform under reconciliation, which is forcing them into the straightjacket on revenue enhancers to offset tax cuts elsewhere.
Complicating this, many self-styled conservatives, including many here, are pitching a fit about closing loopholes that are patently regressive, benefit mostly blue states, and that have always been bad social policy as well. Yes, the home mortgage interest deduction should go, and let the chips fall where they may. Yes, the deductibility of state and local taxes should be repealed. Let the chips fall where they may. Use the money to cut taxes that should be cut. If we can't even reform the indefensible parts of the tax code, we can't do what needs to be done. Anyone who thinks his little deduction is sacred is a swamp creature himself; that's swamp thinking distilled to its essence. Go big and go clean, and tell New York, California, etc. to go pound sand.
The only tactical decision that makes a bit of difference is whether the Senate Republicans will choose to abolish the filibuster. Nothing is going to pass unless they do. But the old timers are deathly afraid of what the Democrats will do the next time they have the majority if there is no filibuster. YMMV. McConnell earned his spurs as an outstanding Minority Leader. He has not forgotten.
If Democrats retake the Senate next year, it's over for at least another 8-12 years. Trump will have two years left, but nothing will pass legislatively, and the Senate Dems will NOT confirm any new judges. None. It won't matter if RBG drops dead the day after the new Senate is sworn in. So even the window on Supreme Court nominations may be about to close.
Steve Bannon & Co. have convinced a lot of people that the thing we really, really need to do is blow up the GOP. Bannon should shut up and run for office himself if he thinks its so easy. Let him pick a blue or purple state and give it a try. He'd get his head handed to him and might learn something.
Where’s the surprise in the recent vote? Fairfax and Alexandria counties are overwhelmingly Democrat and voters came out in droves. Why? Because Donald Trump scares them. They know if he gets eight years the population statistics for the DC area will be greatly altered from where they are now. Watch home sales and home prices in the D.C. area to determine if Trump is having success in draining the swamp.
I see the #FRNeverTrump cadre is active on this thread, including names that I haven’t seen since the election.
The Bushy party is willing to burn down the House to rid the place of Trump at any cost .
There lobbyists who own them have issued orders to destroy Trump at any cost .
The Chamber of crony capitalist runs the Bushy party .
Also
I bet it's because the TPP scam was stopped .
TPP killed our constitution which was the goal .
They want another TPP .
I wonder how many Trump supporters did not come out to vote for Gillespie.
How about the one in Drudge this AM showing 82 percent would vote for Trump again?
That’s a good thing to see
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