Muhammad bin Salman’s dismissal of Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah from his position could prove to be a serious miscalculation. MbS is already unpopular with large parts of the Royal Saudi Land Forces (RSLF) for his disastrous and impetuous war in Yemen. The Saudi led war in Yemen has proceeded from failure to failure and has put tremendous pressure on the inadequately trained and led RSLF.
The National Guard has largely been spared deployment to Saudi Arabia’s dangerous and porous border with Yemen. This is largely due to Prince Mutaib bin Abdullah’s efforts to thwart MbS’ war in Yemen, which is regarded by many within the House of Saud as reckless, dangerous, and deeply immoral.
Dissatisfaction with what many of the old guard regard as an upstart prince could easily manifest itself among the tribal leaders that make up the corps of the National Guard where there is considerable loyalty to the Shammar branch of the al-Saud family.
The National Guard is a potent force within Saudi Arabia and is but one of many potential pools of discontent. Muhammad bin Salman’s betrayal of decades of rule by consensus and consultation in favor of determined autocracy has undoubtedly made enemies of hundreds, if not thousands, of wealthy and influential princes and businessmen. These princes and businessmen are unlikely to wait for their invitation to the Ritz Carlton.