Nobody is going to “invade” North Korea. It is an idiot’s play tool concept, nothing less, nothing more.
NK guns are located clear across the DMZ and you can’t see them at Panmeujon (I looked). They would have to be taken out by MOABS and even small nukes to get them all.
However, I question whether plain artillery could reach Seoul at 35 miles. Maybe the more advance guided munitions. Definitely rockets. Doubt the communists 122mm shells could do it nor the 130mm arty (need to get up to date on these).
As for a NK ground invasion drive on to Seoul. Obviously some of these idiots haven’t driven the main roads from Seoul to the DMZ and back. Lots of places for ambushes, mines, blown up stuff (roads, bridges, culverts, etc).
Just ask the No. Vietnamese what price they paid when the got bottled up at Xuan Loc and stopped cold at An Loc.
Also, SK has good counter-artillery weapons, rockets, and planes too. Plus what the US forces have.
No, No. Korea won’t invade SK unless it is for a limited distance to make a point at great cost to them (like Sadat did in the Yom Kippur War).
More likely NK will start something small at sea, taking out a SK destroyer escort like they did the last time.
A lot of armchair politicians and journalists are going to look like fools if there is no invasion, either way. But then, again, they are politicians and journalists so being a fool is a normal state of affairs for both. (I’m a recovering journalist = SVN, Cambodia, Congress, protests, etc). Really has a way of biting you in the ass when you make an ass (and sound like an ass) out of yourself.
Tube Arty cannot hit Seoul, even with RAP (Rocket Assisted Projectile).
Rockets, yep.
A Korea vet I knew recalled an incident from the 70s while he was posted to the DMZ.
A NK officer filed a complaint with the US about what he called “hand held nuclear weapons” on the border.
An investigation turned up a stainless steel Thermos bottle...