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Understand, I hope the R wins, I truly do, and in a close race, which I do believe this will be, He certainly COULD win.. I just don’t think the stars are likely to align for it.

If D turnout is more depressed that I think it is, or the general anger at McCaulliffe is higher than I perceive, and those more rural voters do show up in large numbers, Gillespie could win... I certainly don’t want to depress anyone from turning out, Anytime a race is inside a few points, which I truly believe this one is... either person CAN win.

I just feel Gillespie pulling that off is the lesser of the likely outcomes, if this was a MAGA v Generic D, I would say the R handily wins. If Gillespie pulls it out, I believe it will have far more to do with VA internal political motivations, then broad national trends.

The broad national trends definitely set the stage for the Republican, even a generic one, to perform well, but will it be enough? Lets not forget there is a libertarian on the ballot as well, and in the last election the lib candidate bled 6.5% of the vote, which traditionally one would assume those voters would tend R over D it the lib was not in the race. McCaulliffe only won by about 56k votes, or a little over 1.5% of the vote.

This is a race the Republican CAN win, its not an impossible outcome, I don’t mean to depress or unmotivate anyone.. I just think its the LESS likely outcome. Please, I am very happy to be proven wrong. I think a MAGA candidate would blunt the lib pull significantly, and also motivate those new Trump voters to the polls... just not convinced a GOPe will be able to do it.. but this is certainly a competitive race where the R could win.

If the R’s do lose, I wlll personally view this as an a race they SHOULD have easily won, because I believe without question had they run a MAGA candidate the R wins it easily by 3+