The Swamp and Leftwing Media hate Moore even than Trump.
A real poll would be of likely voters.
A special election on December 12 is in the middle of Christmas shopping season, and it’s not a regular polling day. Only the dedicated are going to show up.
Moore has a very good chance to win this, but it will not be effortless. I imagine that GOPe is not too excited about him winning and would just as much rather have a Dem.
Turnout is the key.
Don’t let the polls discourage you. Even if Moore’s support is “soft” in percentages, these polls can not really tell how many people are broken-glass supporters. There are many Moore supporters who will show up if there is a blizzard and a nuclear war that day.
Turnout is key indeed - soft / unmotivated support counts as much as strong / motivated support if they actually show up and vote.