I am not giving up, I am just offering my honest analysis. I am not sour graping over Stewart, I don’t live in VA, I don’t have any on the ground information from VA... I am just offering my analysis of the race from my vantage point.
I do think the R COULD win this race... This is a winnable race, I am just not convinced Gillespie is going to get the turnout he needs to win. There is no doubt in my mind overall turnout will be down, and NOVA turnout will definitely be down, with no direct pocketbook voting by the DC burbs to protect their federally funded paychecks, they won’t be showing up in the same numbers as they did in the national election.
The question in my mind is, can Gillespie get good enough turnout in the red counties.... If he can he wins... but I am just not convinced this GOPe/McConnell guy is going to connect and motivate those voters to turn up to take advantage of that NOVA drop.
I do believe this is a winnable race, and Gillespie could suprise here, but I don’t feel its the most likely outcome. If they were running a drain the swamp type candidate, without all the establishment ties, I would comfortably predict an easy R win... with an establishment R however, I think its possible the R wins, but not that its the most likely outcome.
I am happy to be proven wrong, and eat crow... Time will tell
Your analysis is excellent and right on the money. Two things need to happen for Gillispie to win. One, Gillispie must become “Trump” from A-Z. Mitch McConnell cannot help any Candidate, no matter who he or she is. Did you see him yesterday with POTUS, Trump” McConnell was and is standing “Rigor Mortis & Walking Dead” combined. Also bringing any Bush near Virginia is an absolute waste of time.
Two: POTUS TRUMP must campaign strongly in Virginia with Gillispie....Bannon & company must also become outwardly vocal in strong support of Gillispie. Gillispie must be Trump, Trump, Trump and more Trump!!! End of story!!!
If Gillispie hangs his star on McConnell, game over Democrat wins!!! His only real chance of winning is Donald J. Trump!!!