The news media has got wind predictions 100% wrong 100% of the time. Their fear mongering is not helping. Monday night they were predicting winds to 80 mph, meanwhile it remained dead calm in the Rincon Valley section of Santa Rosa that night and the past 4 days winds here have not exceeded 10-15mph. I think that the local weathermen are compensating for the fact that they didn’t sound the alarm Sunday about the freak gusts that drove the fire 15 miles in 4 hours.
Also, reports of fire containment are fear inspiring and don’t reflect the reality that containment in most of the fire areas is above 50% as is demonstrated by US Govt. heat sensing satellites. Below is a link to the best map out there on the fire situation, raw unfiltered data rapidly updated and accessible to the public. Point your friends and family in the fire area to this map. It will settle a lot of doubt and panic.
For example, the Adobe Fire, closest to my location, is being reported as 2% contained whereas the map and my direct observation finds that this fire is almost 80% contained. Day before yesterday morning I watched them water bomb a mile long strip at the edge of Annadel Park, set backfires up the hillside and save dozens of homes abutting the park opposite the Bennett Valley Golf Course. Yesterday I went back to the golf course and could see no evidence of active fire for a 5 mile stretch at the park boundary. They are using minimal capability on the center of the park since no structures are up there. Yet officials are still claiming that the Adobe Fire is only 2% contained.
This chronic over reporting of the wind situation and underestimating the controlled areas is approaching collective hysteria. This fire is a killer and remains dangerous in many zones, no question, but the fire crews in the populated areas are now getting the necessary reinforcements and the evacuated towns are largely out of danger.
I have a feeling that the officials responsible for fire fighting strategy are basically saying that even they can’t trust the weather services to give them accurate predictions and are erring on the side of caution, in my estimation, to a panic causing degree.
The post fire recriminations are already beginning to shape up as “investigative reporters” are beginning to take Pacific Gas and Electric to task for bad power line tree maintenance and slow replacement of older pole mounted transformers. This is total crap. Rare freak 50-60 mph wind gusts are not only going to whip power lines together, they are going to blow trees into the lines and no amount of tree branch trimming is going to insure that trees remain standing in those sorts of winds.
https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/#/%3F/38.4388/-122.6311/14
This why Cal Fire use their own weather people.
So many of the so called weather people on TV are enviral whackoos more interested in preaching the Gorebull Warming religion that the science of weather prediction.