Most of the Earth’s surface is unpopulated. The probability of impact is distributed evenly over the surface (implied by “unable to predict”). Therefore most of the probability of impact is distributed in unpopulated areas. The second statement you quoted is a corollary to the first.
Not true. It will most likely impact along its orbital path, because it doesn't just randomly flit around the globe:
http://www.n2yo.com/?s=37820
Unlikely? Yes. "Highly unlikely"...Bagdad Bob stuff.