I should have used more precise language. I meant that the long run number of doctors would be decreasing. Therefore what you had initially would seem like a surplus later when your baseline had dropped.
Or from your viewpoint that we already have a shortage, "If you think it's bad now, just wait until singer payer takes effect and settles in."
THAT I can accept as accurate. My 20+ year primary care physician is slowly working into retirement (he keeps part-time practice hours), and the group he is part of is having hell replacing him. That is why there are so many "nurse practitioners" suddenly showing up.