Managers at Oroville re-opened the damaged spillway to take pressure off the emergency spillway, and they got away with it.
There’s nothing to be done at Guajataca. Inflow, outflow, and erosion are simply going to do as they will. They may have options upstream, but not locally, and the whole watershed is under pressure, limiting those options, if they exist.
The sun is pretty low in the video you linked. Eyeball squint estimate, 5-6 pm? Problem emerged at 2:30 pm edt, call it 3:30 local, as a guess.
Where the powerlines cross the spillway look to be remains of “dragon’s teeth.” Huge concrete blocks placed to break up and slow velocity of outflow.
A whole string of assumptions here...but...
In two hours, 30 to 40 percent of the horizontal spillway armor, above dragon’s teeth, washed away. Real problem potential, then, as of 8:30 pm EDT. Or,sooner, if an alternate channel develops. Or later, if increased flow velocity and overshoot slows head-cutting.
Variables yes. Options, few.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GSierraZorita?p=s
@GSierraZorita
20m
Police being evacuated from town of Isabela in the event of a collapse of the Guajataca reservoir. #MariaPR twitter.com/ricardorossell
Well...this is the most recent info on Twitter. This info comes from Ricardo Rosello, Governor of PR.
Looks like your scenario is starting to play out.
Can’t see how much more misery this island can handle.