Hurricane Maria Live Thread

NHC/NOAA ^ | 9/16/2017 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Jose has been hanging around, waiting for attention in the wake of Hurricane Irma. Newcomer Maria threatens to impact the Caribbean Islands already devastated by Hurricane Irma, and brushed by Jose. Hurricane Jose threatens to brush or impact New England. Lee appears to be a fish storm at this time.

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Jose	Maria
>	>
Public Advisories	Public Advisories
Forecast Discussions	Forecast Discussions

[NautiNurse]

SST = 86ºF

[NautiNurse]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...16.3N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

[KC Burke]

GFS has it hitting the east tip of PR but it tracks right over San Juan. Of course the size brings some major impact to the whole island. This is 30 hours out I believe.

[Paul R.]

Impressive (in a bad way) loop here, but I do not know how to capture this one “as is” (without it automatically updating), as it is not a simple gif, apparently.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/910129117500248065

[KC Burke]

Yeah, that is one of those twitter imbeds and I don’t know how to show it either.

[Paul R.]

Also, a buoy right in the path, winds rising...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

[Paul R.]

[Paul R.]

Not a current pic - waves are now 31 ft.

[Paul R.]

Yes, quite unfortunate, as it really shows the rapid development to Cat 5, the effect of Dominica, and the rapid recovery. Scary!

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Ever head of the Herbert Box, this just gave me a headache.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[KC Burke]

YES, NN has been posting it at the start of these threads. See I do my homework.

[dirtboy]

Forecast track puts main population centers of PR in right-front quandrant. Not good.

[KC Burke]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

[KC Burke]

Here is a buoy link in the path of the storm.

For others new to this, as I remember, multiply Meters per Second by 2.23 to get miles per hour.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

I need to do more homework. This my second hurricane. I am still trying to put reality together with what my eyes saw.
Back to Herbert box. Maria has passed through the first box.

[KC Burke]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

[nutmeg]

22 days without power in central CT. Three toddlers. It was a challenge.

22 days with no power after the October 2011 snowstorm?? May I ask where that was? I thought Simsbury (town near us) was hit the worst at 12 days without power...

22 days... that's just unacceptable in this day and age in the US. I think I would've stormed the power company's headquarters! ;-)

[KC Burke]

I tink it is as much a disqualifier as a a qualifier. It rarely hits the CONUS if it doesn’t go through one of the boxes. Not it almost always hits CONUS if it goes through one of the boxes.

I think that is my understanding, Perhaps others with more history on it will chime in.

[dfwgator]

Be much better if it hit the Southeastern part of the island and let the mountains tear it up a bit before it gets to San Juan, it’s not nearly as populated there.

[KC Burke]

I think the problem will be that the right-most quadrant of the eye will swing around the east tip unhindered and the left front quadrant based on path will come in from the seaward side of San Juan as a right hook, unhindered.