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From all reports, the portion of the Keys between Key West and Marathon had major hurricane damage, Key West was fortunate to be in a somewhat weaker portion of the outer western eyewall and had more moderate damage.

Another relatively fortunate break was that storm surge arrived arouhd Naples at low tide, and it was not quite as large an increase as expected.

Tampa Bay got the full benefit of the earlier landfall than the official forecast had been suggesting.

Daytona Beach to Jacksonville got the reverse side of that coin by being closer to the track, and in line for larger storm surge than would have been the case with the official track verifying.

All in all, Florida probably got off relatively lightly but there are two or three pockets of severe impacts; even so what could have been a top-five damage storm (in the 50 billion range) turned into a moderate event (probably 5 to 10 billion overall in Florida, obviously quite a high damage figure in the Caribbean islands).

The reality is somewhere between the worst case scenario and the “nothing much happened” camps. We won’t see another Irma in six years, the name will disappear from the name rotation because of the carnage in the islands.


948 posted on 09/11/2017 8:02:00 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (The president is a good man -- that's why they are out to get him -- where have we seen this before?)
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To: Peter ODonnell

(by earlier landfall I meant to say more southerly landfall, that minimized the wind and storm surge potential considerably — if Tampa Bay had been Naples with exactly that same landfall, it would be quite a mess now). And as late as Sunday morning that was the expectation based on the official forecasts.


952 posted on 09/11/2017 8:04:20 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (The president is a good man -- that's why they are out to get him -- where have we seen this before?)
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