Replies

That is a very good link to information about this storm.

I can tell all that there is people on this thread that I have argued and actually got pissed at over the last 15 years.

Now isn’t the time. We have 1,000,000 people on the move for no reason and another 1,000,000 people on the move that is screwed.

Thanks very much NHC.

Now isn’t the time.

Agree with that!

We have 1,000,000 people on the move for no reason and another 1,000,000 people on the move that is screwed.

Thanks very much NHC.

Can't agree with that. Now isn’t the time. Until not so many hours ago, starting last Wed. morning, virtually all of FL except the panhandle has been within the "cone". Prior to that, if anything, it appeared Irma might take a path similar to the one it now appears to be on.

Somewhere I saw where NHC quite openly states their typical track errors vs. days out. Far enough out for evacs to be practical, those uncertainties are rather large. So, one ends up with probabilities. Ditto for intensities. Point is, the forecasting just isn't presently capable of doing better. Given the complexities, variables, and unknowns, I am impressed at how much better NHC's forecasts usually are, than 20 years ago.

Having only a probability, even if modest, does not preclude evacuation.

What local officials end up with is essentially an idea of the probability of casualties. Your call: If there is "a moderate risk that if residents do not evacuate, there will be casualties in this neighborhood", do you order the evacuation?

I have good friends, not to mention businesses crucial to MY business, on both FL coasts. As bad as the next couple days will likely be, we (they) just as easily could have had a strong Cat 5 roaring up FL's east coast. Was NHC supposed to discount that, because if the path ended up to the West, fewer people would have needed to evacuate? Was NHC supposed to discount that, to minimize the potential number of 2nd guessers if the path ended up to the West?

Now, if you can demonstrably consistently improve on NHC's forecasts, do it. You'll likely end up quite wealthy. :-)