Hurricane Irma Live Thread III

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[jeffers]

Center of the eye will miss Sanibel E tip by 5.5 NM, to the west, at CPA, on present course.

Outer edge of eyewall precip is 20 NM from center, so a 31 mile miss...if it doesn’t turn N any further.

[Revel]

Supposed to be live video from a key west fire station. Very Erie sounds.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1dRKZnOgdaXKB

[eyedigress]

I was down there for FLEXtronix.
We were Square D Company.

We ended up giving that up to Mex. Not my call.

[HKMk23]

At either 250hPa (34,000ft) or 500hPa (18,400ft) you can see mid-level airflows that seem to be at work preventing Irma taking a more Westerly track, with some evidence even apparent down at 700hPa (10,000ft). Not saying they’re 100% of the reason for the change in heading, but certainly appear to be contributing. An interesting piece to a very large puzzle.

[RegulatorCountry]

How did your Hatteras trip turn out or did it get cancelled?

[jeffers]

Euro has the wobbles settling down to direct eye center hits on Key West, west tip, Ft Myers, then Tampa.

If true, it needs to turn more yet.

[eyedigress]

You have different numbers here. First of explain the Pa.

You have 250 at 34,000. You have 500 at 18,400 and 700 at 18,000.

For a layman you will need to explain that difference between
500 and 700.

[Reno89519]

I see latest location via wunderground.com, which is Weather Underground’s personal weather station map, shows that while the hurricane started north toward Key West, the latest update shows that it has instead move west. Heading into the Gulf instead of north to Florida. Anyone else seeing reports on this shift?

[eyedigress]

23rd

[Yaelle]

Stay safe all of you. Prayers for everyone in FL.

[jeffers]

928 mb, per TWC.

[Reno89519]

Here is link. Zoom out and you can see several personal weather stations, the ones working show winds in the 30s. Zoom out to where you can see Cuba, you can see the definite shift west in the 3 a.m. GMT: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=25.101&lon=-80.431&zoom=13&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&viewportstart=now-3881&viewportend=now-281&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&%3BgroupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&%3Bfirewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&%3Blabels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&rad=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=1&wxsn.mode=tw&wxsn.opa=50&wxsn.bcdgtemp=0&wxsn.rf=1&wxsn.showpws=1&cams=1&pix=0

[eyedigress]

That was a shitty response. I’ve been on pins and needles. I have 15 people coming over. Some flying in. These storms have messed me up. I’ll be OK.

[RegulatorCountry]

I’ve posted a recent video of the local pro surfer on Hatteras doing his thing at the old lighthouse jetties in Buxton, not far from Hatteras Village. If you’d enjoy watching surfers who know what they’re doing in surprisingly decent surf (the swells start coming in late August and it builds through the winter), you might like to take a little side trip up that way. It’s pretty easy to find, the jetties on the beach at the old site of the lighthouse before it was moved inland. Arguably the best surfing on the OBX, some might say Avalon Pier or the S curves at Mirlo Beach, though.

[RegulatorCountry]

?

[EternalVigilance]

I don’t know where you’re getting that. The NWS is making it clear that this storm is about to hit Key West.

[Paul R.]

Now isn’t the time.

Agree with that!

We have 1,000,000 people on the move for no reason and another 1,000,000 people on the move that is screwed.

Thanks very much NHC.

Can't agree with that. Now isn’t the time. Until not so many hours ago, starting last Wed. morning, virtually all of FL except the panhandle has been within the "cone". Prior to that, if anything, it appeared Irma might take a path similar to the one it now appears to be on.

Somewhere I saw where NHC quite openly states their typical track errors vs. days out. Far enough out for evacs to be practical, those uncertainties are rather large. So, one ends up with probabilities. Ditto for intensities. Point is, the forecasting just isn't presently capable of doing better. Given the complexities, variables, and unknowns, I am impressed at how much better NHC's forecasts usually are, than 20 years ago.

Having only a probability, even if modest, does not preclude evacuation.

What local officials end up with is essentially an idea of the probability of casualties. Your call: If there is "a moderate risk that if residents do not evacuate, there will be casualties in this neighborhood", do you order the evacuation?

I have good friends, not to mention businesses crucial to MY business, on both FL coasts. As bad as the next couple days will likely be, we (they) just as easily could have had a strong Cat 5 roaring up FL's east coast. Was NHC supposed to discount that, because if the path ended up to the West, fewer people would have needed to evacuate? Was NHC supposed to discount that, to minimize the potential number of 2nd guessers if the path ended up to the West?

Now, if you can demonstrably consistently improve on NHC's forecasts, do it. You'll likely end up quite wealthy. :-)

[eyedigress]

You do know that the young champ surfer lost his life with Irma. He just didn’t know.

[eyedigress]

Alright Paul.

I’ll let you explain why.

[RegulatorCountry]

I’m aware, I took a lot of flak on an FR thread for sticking up for him. People travel the world when surf’s up, I know they come from all over the east coast and midwest to OBX when there’s a nice swell. It’s a dangerous sport, but then a lot of sports are dangerous.