Hurricane Irma shifts toward Florida's west coast, which faces 'very dangerous' situation

ABC News ^ | September 9, 2017 | by EMILY SHAPIRO MORGAN WINSOR

[floridavoter2]

I’m sitting here in fort myers, FL at the hospital which is doubling as a shelter.
Could be worse, but it’s just getting started.

[faucetman]

“....hit Cuba overnight as a rare Category 5 storm, then shifted course toward the west coast of Florida.”

Not according to
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=22.5;-79.9;5&l=wind

Irma has continued it’s NW course bumping along the Cuban coast.

The projection doesn’t show a shift to the north until 3 am Sunday morning.

[faucetman]

This is looking more and more like a rain event.

[hawkaw]

That earthquake tool is awesome. Thanks for the link.

[so_real]

Prevailing winds have been southwest over Cuba for a week prior to Irma's landfall. I don't know enough to arm-chair quarterback the spaghetti modelers ... but in my opinion there was only the slimmest of probabilities Irma would bounce up the eastern coast of Florida. On this track it could hit land as far west as Pensacola and it would not surprise me one bit.

[Paladin2]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-76.07,28.47,392

Click on “earth” and you can pick other “altitudes”(Height) to check the winds there. I think one can see the shear (different directions at different altitudes )that the meteorologists are talking about.

I’m not sure what drives the rapid direction change to North predicted, but the next 24 hr should be interesting to see just how good their models are this time (they were pretty good with Harvey’s loop over Houston).

[cgbg]

2pm update—still moving west—still doing a 90 degree turn and heading north _soon_. ;-)

[so_real]

Beautiful map -- thanks for the link!

[Albion Wilde]

Glad you have a plan. God be with you, and also J&J.

[Paladin2]

It’s interactive. You can zoom in and out and rotate the Erf with your mouse.

[SamAdams76]

Great link. I bookmarked it. I wish I could be a kid again. When I was growing up, there was none of this stuff. I got all most of my information from the World Almanac Book of Facts that came out each year. I literally read that book cover to cover and was fascinated with all the facts that are now a mouse click away.

That Internet really changed everything.

[Paladin2]

"Will likely lose power for a few days."

I heard on the radio that untold numbers of Yankee line and tree crews are already on the way or positioned in the panhandle to help get things back online after the witch passes through...

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Thanks, again!

[ClearBlueSky]

Ah I remember a trof that was going to pick up Katrina. It did-somewhere up north. We must all realize that as long as Irma turns north-even if it turns in Texas- they were RIGHT!

[Paladin2]

Sure appears that the eye has warm water sensor is always seeking to stay over some.

The next 12 hr will tell about the predicted turn.

[Paladin2]

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

There seems to be some kind of force/front keeping the outer band arms limited to a straight SW-NE line...

[cgbg]

You have to wonder if these models include the impact of the hurricane pounding Cuba and the Cuba mountains pushing back—since they didn’t predict this would happen to begin with. Mountains really mess up hurricanes.

The hurricane is not just moving directly west (which they did not predict) but it is also further south than they predicted.

Nothing would surprise me at this point.

[Paladin2]

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

The Eye of witch Irma seems to be hugging the coast of Cuba.

When the coast turns true west, it’ll be interesting to see if Irma separates.

[cgbg]

The models have the eye of the hurricane over Key West in twelve hours.

That will require a major northern move—we will know a lot at that point.

[Paladin2]

Even six hours should tell the tale.