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To: commish
Commish, I live in Pinellas County and see all these computer models predicting Irma will turn right on Saturday, Saturday night - but what if the storm misses the turn????? It would be very nice if this storm just keeps going NW, but who knows?
999 posted on 09/08/2017 8:33:41 AM PDT by Ken522
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To: Ken522
Commish, I live in Pinellas County and see all these computer models predicting Irma will turn right on Saturday, Saturday night - but what if the storm misses the turn????? It would be very nice if this storm just keeps going NW, but who knows?

Unfortunately the upper level steering currents look to prevent that. But, if the storm pushes any south it could track further west, and interaction with Cuba could also shred it and then it is anybodies guess what happens. But, those are very very low probabilities.

There is a low running from the central US down to the western gulf. This would force a North and then NE turn. However there is also a strong High pressure ridge over the Eastern States that is what has kept Irma pushed down on the track she is on. As she gets past that High the backside of if will steer her NW and then North. That has been the forecast all along - she will turn and ride the slot in between the High and the Low. And that turn is almost a garaunteed certainty.

The question is timing. All the models predicted the High degrading and the low pushing East, that would have produced the early turn. But as time as gone on the high has persisted and the low has ben blocked -- resulting in a constant move Westward on all the models.

Unless something drastic happens to blow the high out, and nothing looks strong enough to do that, Irma will track west and then catch the slot around Key West and ride straight up the West Coast of FLA.

What we need to pray for now is more and more interaction with Cuba to weaken here down from Cat 4/5

1,007 posted on 09/08/2017 8:42:06 AM PDT by commish (Freedom tastes Sweetest to those who have fought to preserve it!)
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To: Ken522

Was just out and about in Countryside/Palm Harbor area.

There is a military helicopter flying around. And we saw two national guard HUGE vehicles driving down Landmark Blvd (which for non locals is probably a tertiary road with nothing but neighborhoods off of it).


1,042 posted on 09/08/2017 9:01:03 AM PDT by pinkandgreenmom
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