The most important thing to emphasize with this storm is that it is predicted to be cat 4 or less at landfall. NHC is saying cat 4 with perfect conditions. They have two caveats of eyewall replacement and Cuba interaction that will make it cat 3. But they are saying cat 4 to be safe. Only a cat 5 causes destruction 20-30 miles inland, and beyond that cat 5 (Camille and Andrew) were more sporadic meaning people in flimsy houses or mobile homes need to leave.
Weather channel’s Cantore was still saying less than an hour ago that the storm could get stronger or weaker. I didn’t see how it could get stronger but I’m not the expert. I only saw it getting weaker.
What is more likely and do we have an approximate landfall location in the keys?
There are very few people in South Florida 30 or even 20 miles inland. I live about 10 miles inland and am just about 3 miles from the Everglades. After that there is basically nobody.
However, the models now show Irma's eye going up the center of the peninsula so the question is how much it will weaken on it's way north. I am hoping for well under 100 mph winds by the time the eye is due west of us in the center of the Everglades.