Is NCEP credible? Outlier? I’m going to look at EURO now..
about in the middle of the global models...GFS east..EURO west
I wouldn’t trust those tracks. They are all over the place. One has an eye wall landfall at Brunswick! Matthew was much more stable on approach but this one could anywhere, IMO. East coast or even west coast. That rotation in the keys is going to decide everything. I don’t like this lean to west trend. Not good for NE FL if it goes up the coast.
Irma on a jet stream forecast map:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-300-forecast.htm
Mouse over the days at the bottom.
Don’t know what modeling they use but it’s different.
Has Irma spend a day in Miami and then crawl up the East coast and then out.