Thank you.
One other aside.
Sometimes the conditions are more stable giving more certainty to the forecasting.
There has been talk in the last few years of adding that to the forecasts. I don’t know that I’ve seen it incorporated.
This storm has a couple interesting components. One is that it is massive and has a lot of momentum, like a freight train. A lot of things came together just right to allow it to reach this size and become so stable and well organized.
The other is the high pressure and cold front to the west of the storm that are adding uncertainty to the situation.
If the cold front or the high weaken or deteriorate, as they are prone to do, they will give in allowing the hurricane to maintain its westerly track instead of remaining in place to steer the storm more to the east.
It appears that this is what is causing the difficulty in predicting a more certain storm path until just a day or two out from landfall.