With its current trajectory, moving up the west coast above Tampa area, what about storm surge reaching 3 miles in from the gulf about a hour above Tampa?
I am not qualified to answer that.
Ivan had a large surge as it went into the Florida panhandle but the surge didn’t impact those inland that much.
I do know Katrina’s surge went a good ways inland. A friend of mine owns a business in Gulfport, MS that is over 3 miles inland and he got 6’ of water in his building. In this case, much of the water came from the the back bays, rivers, etc. When the surge came in, it just pushed it up the rivers and other tributaries. Other factors would certainly include the terrain, sea level, etc.
Additionally, Katrina had a record 28’ surge. I really don’t believe we’ll see anything like that form this storm but then again, I am not an expert.
If it goes in further south of you, I don’t believe you have to be as concerned about surge. And hopefully this storm weakens quite a bit too.
I’ll add to my previous post that I don’t believe a surge 3 miles inland is near as violent as it is right along the coast. Surge is certainly possible 3 miles inland but it’s usually not as violent. It’s mostly flooding that becomes the problem then.