This question is to all on FR who consider themselves storm enthusiasts. I’m wondering how the models that are used for predicting the path and the strength compare with the actuals of the storm. How frequently do the “experts” get it right? How accurate are they? To say that a location is in the cone shows me that there’s still so much they haven’t got the foggiest idea about. That cone is pretty darn big. Gives them lots of leeway to say, hey, we had it right all along. I hate that I’m cynical about things like this. I wish I weren’t.
It pays to learn what the colors represent within the path and cone.....also where the eye is...get that down and you’ll understand a bit more about the cone. But there’s a whole lot ore with that....as depicted throughout this thread.
It’s depends on if you are thinking of pin point accuracy.
But that is impossible with the weather as the system is in a constant state of change.
That’s why forecasts can change so much and even be dead wrong sometimes.
They forecast with the information they collect and they know but cannot guess at every variable that *might* happen. Or not.
So they give the best estimate they can pull together.