[boycott]

You could say that but they were still way off. If you put half the Gulf of Mexico within the cone, you’re probably going to be right.

[dirtboy]

The point is, they always say, be prepared if you are in the cone. Also, forecasting has improved since Katrina so the cones are smaller, but there is always a fair amount of uncertainty more than 3 days out.

[alancarp]

The slower a storm is moving, the more there's a chance for other influences in the weather to re-steer it. Katina was going 7mph in your chart above. Irma has been going 12-14.

Add to that: None of the major models show anything like that. The Euro and the UKMet especially have been on target all along.

So is there a 0% chance that Irma does something weird? No, but those odds are probably no more than 1-2%.

So y'all stop cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.