Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II
NHC/NOAA ^ | NHC/NOAA | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 761-780781-800801-820 ... 2,661-2,667 next last
To: NELSON111

The people of Texas can’t thank you enough...


781 posted on 09/08/2017 2:40:28 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 717 | View Replies]

To: All

down to 155 CAT 4..also 06z further west looks like the EURO

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle. A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi
wide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening. The
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in
the outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the
125-130 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 135 kt.

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a
slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at
least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After
landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to
land interaction and increased shear, although Irma’s large wind
field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large
area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14. Irma should
maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves
along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break
and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward. There
remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,
with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and
the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side. The ECMWF, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best
agreement with those models. Overall, the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments
at 36 and 48 h.


782 posted on 09/08/2017 2:44:35 AM PDT by janetjanet998
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 781 | View Replies]

To: who knows what evil?

Irma could visit Miami...Orlando...Atlanta...Nashville.


783 posted on 09/08/2017 2:51:29 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 781 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2
My Dad sat up all night with a broomstick propped against it.

Now that is quite a story !

784 posted on 09/08/2017 2:57:31 AM PDT by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 762 | View Replies]

To: foundedonpurpose
The prep list is a little late. Should have been posted 3 days ago when almost no one cared.

That's lousy advice to give people, and defeatist. People by the hundreds of thousands are preparing as I type, in South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and elsewhere. Are stores out of things, or is fuel sold out in some areas? Yes, of course, but that does not mean that everything is gone and there is no hope for individuals and families to prepare. Most people even have many of these items on hand already, they simply need to sort them into a kit and get ready.

785 posted on 09/08/2017 3:10:06 AM PDT by SkyPilot ("I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." John 14:6)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 604 | View Replies]

To: DuncanWaring; NautiNurse; metmom
Evacuation Zone for the Georgia coast:

Evacuation Zones for Miami, but only Zones A and B (red and orange) is currently mandadory evacuation.

Shelter locations in Miami.


786 posted on 09/08/2017 3:12:55 AM PDT by SkyPilot ("I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." John 14:6)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 620 | View Replies]

To: SkyPilot
I saw on the Irma I thread a pic of a store with NO water on the shelves - right next to fully stocked shelves of beer and other alcohol.

Tap water works for all water needs, and a 5 gallon water dispenser bottle gets most people out a day or two.

But skipping the beer in favor of water - sometimes at a higher cost?

Talk about buying for speculation!

787 posted on 09/08/2017 3:14:33 AM PDT by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120) Cure Alzheimer's!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 785 | View Replies]

To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM Advisory...
----------------------------------------------
Location...21.7N 73.8W
About 55 MI...NW of Great Inagua Island
About 495 MI...SE of Miami FL
Maximum Sustained Winds...155 MPH
Present Movement...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...925 MB...27.32 Inches

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

788 posted on 09/08/2017 3:14:55 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Tear down the Mexican Carrier plant and use the materials to build the wall)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 782 | View Replies]

To: MayflowerMadam
#1. Either they believed the lies, so that makes them too stupid to be respected OR they didn’t necessarily believe the MSM but didn’t want to appear to support Trump so that makes them weak and unprincipled.

Or, most likely, they put their organization's neutral-by-necessity-brand and goals of tending to the needy first and had reason to believe that the hullaballoo the press created meant too many people would believe the lies and would boycott the event or withhold support...and in the short window of time before the event there would not be sufficient time for the press damage to be corrected or draw in big donors who would also be covering their brands.

The primary purpose of the Salvation Army's directors, after all, are to help desperate people in times of need, not to tend to their own needs or the needs of a politician who is perfectly able to fend for himself.

Note that Trump holds no grudges on them over it- he understands the need to protect a brand.

789 posted on 09/08/2017 3:38:02 AM PDT by piasa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 779 | View Replies]

To: texas booster

Pasco County’s recommending voluntary evac of folks on the west side of US 19 and from low lying areas.

I’m not on that side but am in a low lying area, guess I better put the valuables on tables and get the canoe into a better spot just in case I have to hang out with the neighbors higher up the road...

Yuck.


790 posted on 09/08/2017 3:43:47 AM PDT by piasa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 787 | View Replies]

To: SE Mom

It is. I’ve been there often enough. Real estate is pretty right in S Beach. There are parks, but they don’t look like that either. Perhaps it’s a little further north up the coast, but they are calling g it S beach because it’s close enough.


791 posted on 09/08/2017 3:52:03 AM PDT by HollyB
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 471 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse; dirtboy
Another system development coming into play off the coast of Africa for next week...

NWS 5 Day Outlook

792 posted on 09/08/2017 4:08:21 AM PDT by TADSLOS (Reset Underway!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 791 | View Replies]

To: piasa; LonePalm
I have a lot of friends in the Tampa area. There are only so many roads heading north that are good evacuation routes.

Lone Palm lives near St. Mary's GA and he is in an evacuation zone. Being ex-navy I suspect that he is already prepared for this storm.

Just be glad that we don't need to head out to sea in a sub from there. It is supposed to be fine once out to sea, but that 20+ mile trip at the surface can be a beating.

793 posted on 09/08/2017 4:10:23 AM PDT by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120) Cure Alzheimer's!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 790 | View Replies]

To: FamiliarFace

Glad I could make your day.


794 posted on 09/08/2017 4:14:19 AM PDT by metmom ( ...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 680 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

I was reporting to Mayport to go aboard the Saratoga when Dora struck. I nearly drowned in that storm trying to help put up a sandbag wall to try to keep the Atlantic out of the officer’s housing on base. I was twenty years old.


795 posted on 09/08/2017 4:25:12 AM PDT by RipSawyer (Racism is racism regardless of the race of the racist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 762 | View Replies]

To: fatima

COME ON ‘EARLIER’!


796 posted on 09/08/2017 4:25:22 AM PDT by Road Warrior ‘04 (Molon Labe! (Oathkeeper))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 751 | View Replies]

To: janetjanet998

should have been lowered at 11pm even more(might be post analyst) and recon has been showing winds decreasing since then

the NHC may be be conservative with the decrease so people won’t let there gaurd down with a “weaker” storm since it may come back

...

Oh I agree. It’s obvious from the satellite. But I think the reason is it’s part of the Global Warming hoax.


797 posted on 09/08/2017 4:28:44 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Make America Great Again!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 771 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Finishing up the plywood today and then finish pulling what's still outside, inside.

Now the dilemma: Do I put the generator outside and get ready to get it running AND take the chance of IT being blown away, or do I wait until the power's out and then try to start it and connect everything? I think I'll wait....and pray!

798 posted on 09/08/2017 4:31:04 AM PDT by Road Warrior ‘04 (Molon Labe! (Oathkeeper))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rollo tomasi

For the specific reason that the models are all over the place is why people should have evacuated early.

The people who MUST stay and provide care and/or services are not included. Hence, why I did not say every
one.

When models are uncertain, do not wait. Paralysis by analysis kills.


799 posted on 09/08/2017 4:40:11 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The largest and most dangerous hate-group in the US is now the Democratic Party)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 561 | View Replies]

To: FamiliarFace

Because it is not an exact science is precisely why people should have been moving out earlier.

Right now, everyone is talking about “the turn” and nobody knows how that will happen.

Sitting around waiting for certainty can kill. Paralysis by analysis does not work in such cases.

Get your ass in gear and get out is intelligent. Waiting for someone to tell you what to do is not.


800 posted on 09/08/2017 4:42:18 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The largest and most dangerous hate-group in the US is now the Democratic Party)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 654 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 761-780781-800801-820 ... 2,661-2,667 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson