Any thoughts on how Pakistan reacts?
I think that will depend on how badly they want US bucks.
How Pakistan reacts depends on what China wants, and will tell us much about China.
The overarching concern in that region is China’s “One Belt”.
There are huge sums of money involved.
Pakistan is going through its own domestic turmoil with its prime minister removed for “corruption”, which in many Pakistan circles has been viewed as something engineered through the judiciary by the military-intelligence complex of Pakistan - he was never their man.
However, the ousted prime minister’s party holds a clear majority in parliament and THEY will be choosing a successor. They have already chosen an interim one from their party, a cabinet official under the ousted prime minister. Within about a month they must chose a permanent replacement which is said to likely be a brother-in-law of he ousted prime minister.
The whole saga reflects so much of modern Pakistan history - the more things change, the more they remain the same. Pakistan elected leaders last as long as they don’t offend the military-intelligence complex and their very big interests in Pakistan’s economy. In Pakistan the “military industrial complex” is a network far tighter and integrated, and spread over the economy, than anything Ike ever imagined.
Chances for what Trump’s speech could be vis-a-vis Pakistan-U.S. relations?
Within the past 24 hours Pakistan has been touting the “success” it is having ousting terrorist sanctuaries on its side of the Afghan-Pakistan border as well as segments of the Hagani financing-money-laundering network (alleged to be a Taliban-Al-Queda method of getting and transferring funds) it has shut down in Pakistan lately. That was done as positioning, as if to say “See Mr Trump, we are doing as you are going to suggest we should”. Are they trying to say they really want to work with Trump?
Not likely.
Most likely they will try to employ the geopolitical blackmail they have always employed against pressures form U.S. presidents - getting more chummy with China, Russia or both. If Trump has not been told to expect this, his senior NSC staff should be fired.
And as much as I understand and agree getting India more involved is right, and maybe even appreciated by India, it cannot be said it will reduce tensions on the subcontinent. Pakistan, no matter who is in charge, does not want greater Indian influence with Afghanistan, even if Afghanistan wants it very much.
China moves to respond positively with more support in and for Pakistan are not going to lessen China-India tensions.
Russia will try to play the neutral wild card, with lots of influence on Pakistan-Afghanistan’s northern borders with central Asia; and seeking to earn more money selling more arms and equipment to Pakistan - never let someone else’s crisis go to waste (as we saw in Syria and the west non-committal commitment to regime change - something you can’t “bunt”).
I understand 100% and sympathize 100% to the sentiment to be leave of Afghanistan with something worthwhile achieved. For the deaths we have already had there, and for them alone, I get there. It asks if just leaving will be dishonor their sacrifice. I just wish I believed today that any real success, leading to the end of the military conflict, a political solution and the Taliban not in charge or building means for their violence still, is achievable. I don’t.