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Here’s a link to the traffic in the vicinity of the Fitzgerald prior to and including the time of the collision (provided by PavewayIV on another thread): https://youtu.be/m1b58yelh_c?t=25

And here are my comments to PavewayIV from that thread:

To: PavewayIV
The video of their paths is really interesting. You asked someone else to do the math. While I didn’t do the math exactly, I think a case can be made that the Fitzgerald was much, much, closer to the Wan Hei than to the Crystal, but I’ve made several assumptions that you should check.

The data:
1. From the video, the Wan Hai and the Crystal are very close to running exactly parallel, so I assumed they were exactly side by side. (Just before the collision in the video, the Wan Hai position hadn’t been updating, so it appears to be well behind the Crystal, but the next update has it well ahead after the collision. (compare frame 1:05 with 1:06)

2. The video has a time stamp and speed of the ships, but no indication of distances, so I used a ruler to measure the distance traveled in six minutes and got about 1.5 inches on my screen. At approx 20 mph, that meant that 1.5 inches translates to about 2 miles.

3. The Wan Hai is 1.5 inches from the Crystal (on my screen) and is running parallel to the Crystal, and even with it (approximately).

4. The report from the captain of the Crystal had the Fitzgerald at 40 degrees off port at 3 nautical miles distance. I’m assuming that means that it was what it sounds like, 40 degrees left of a line running along the Crystal’s path at a distance of approx 3.5 miles.

So, that’s the assumptions.

Now, draw a 2x2 mile square box with the west corners (from the bottom, labeled A, B, C, and D, i.e., going clockwise from the bottom left. The Crystal would be at point A on the box. The Wan Hai would be at point B on the box, two miles away from the Crystal. The Crystal is moving toward point D, and the Wan Hai toward point C.

On a 45 degree line from A, at a distance of 2.8 miles you would be at point C on the box, and on a line directly in the path of the Wan Hai. At a 40 degree line from A (from the Crystal) a point 3.5 miles out would also lie very close to a point directly in the path of the Wan Hai. Also, the video shows the Wan Hai actually ahead of the Crystal after the turn (frame at 48 seconds, with both ships moving perpendicular to the blue line), so the Fitzgerald would have been almost directly in the path of the Wan Hai and approx two miles away from it.

Here begins the speculation: The Fitzgerald became aware of the Wan Hai, only about two miles away and heading in its direction, but maintaining it’s 80 degree course would take it away from the Wan Hai (in the direction of a line running from A to D.) That line, unfortunately, was the course of the Crystal, which had every reason to believe that the Fitzgerald would eventually maneuver around it. But on the bridge of the Fitzgerald, the Wan Hai was the concern and the threat of the Crystal was never successfully relayed to the bridge. (It’s really difficult to believe it was never detected at all.)

For this to work out, the Fitzgerald, however, would not have continued on the original 80 degree course at a faster speed than the Crystal. It would have had to execute a starboard turn because it hit the Crystal after the Crystal had only traveled about four miles from the turn. That’s not possible if the original course and a faster speed are assumed. But then, a starboard turn away from the Wan Hai’s path would make sense, so it could well have been executed.

P.S. This would be a lot easier to demonstrate with a diagram.

My main speculation has been that more than two ships were likely involved. That’s based on what happened in the Porter collision, where the first ship drew all the attention and the second one encountered was a surprise. Given what I’ve described above, approximately that same scenario appears quite possible.