Might have worked out if shots hadn’t been fired
It was impossible to avoid the shots being fired. The South was put in an untenable situation, and even if they had avoided that one, Lincoln had another effort going to start the war in Pensacola.
Most people don't know this, but Lincoln had sent a war fleet of 8 ships to Charleston to attack the Confederate forces there. The reason the Confederates fired on Sumter was because the orders of those warships to "clear away all obstructions by force" was publicly known.
Yes, the Warships Lincoln sent had orders to attack, and the Confederates knew this. They thought Lincoln was going to hit them from the sea with those warships while the Garrison at Sumter attacked them with the cannons of the Fort.
But as I said, if Lincoln hadn't provoked a reaction at Sumter, he had already in place a task force to start the war in Pensacola.
One way or the other, Mr. Lincoln was going to get the war he badly needed.