#2 is probably the most realistic description of the of events. Posted by someone that has been there and done that.
This happened when I lived in Subic Bay in 1969 while my dad was the XO of the base, and they towed the aft end of the ship and moored it, where I saw it every day on my way to school.
To me...watching this is a classic portrayal of how exactly how these things go bad...it's dark, wee hours of the morning...people make mental mistakes, transpose numbers, don't follow proper procedures, make false assumptions, make bad decisions, and it ends up just as you think it will. It is like a slow motion train wreck, and the players don't have any Idea until within the space of about 30 seconds, everyone on the bridge realizes..."Oh crap. We are going to get screwed."
And they did...God rest their souls.